The federal electorate of Spence, long considered a reliable stronghold for the Australian Labor Party, is beginning to show signs of a more contested race ahead of the next federal election. With rapid suburban expansion, a changing voter base, and local frustrations mounting over infrastructure and essential services, both major parties are eyeing the seat with renewed interest.
Currently held by Labor MP Matt Burnell, Spence includes key northern Adelaide suburbs such as Salisbury, Elizabeth, and surrounding areas. Burnell, a former union official and Australian Army veteran, was first elected in 2022 following the departure of long-serving Labor MP Nick Champion, who moved to state parliament. Burnell secured the seat with a two-party-preferred margin of just under 13 per cent, suggesting stability at the time. But as migration patterns and economic pressures reshape the region, political assumptions about Spence are starting to shift.
Historically, Spence—previously known as Wakefield—has been a safe Labor seat. Its blue-collar identity and industrial roots have long underpinned support for Labor, especially when the automotive and defence sectors dominated the local economy. The seat was renamed Spence after a 2018 redistribution, honouring social reformer Catherine Helen Spence. The reconfigured boundaries retained many of the same working-class suburbs but added newer growth areas that have since become influential.
Census data shows that Spence has become one of South Australia’s more multicultural electorates. More than 30 per cent of residents were born overseas, with a marked rise in Indian and Sri Lankan families choosing to settle in suburbs like Munno Para West, Burton, and Andrews Farm. Drawn by more affordable housing compared to Adelaide’s inner suburbs, many new arrivals are young professionals or skilled migrants seeking to establish roots.
These outer suburbs are reflecting patterns of rapid development and generational change. While not all new estates fall strictly within the Spence boundary, the broader shift toward Adelaide’s northern fringe highlights a common dynamic—more families, more homebuyers, and more demands on already stretched infrastructure.
This influx has started to diversify political sentiment across the electorate. While Labor retains strong union links and broad support among legacy voters, the Liberal Party has increased its presence on the ground. Daniel Wild, a senior executive at the Institute of Public Affairs, is the Liberal candidate for Spence and has launched an active campaign focusing on cost-of-living pressures, economic stability, and infrastructure delivery. The party sees potential to connect with younger working families and migrant communities who are increasingly prioritising results over rhetoric.
While Labor’s historical dominance remains intact for now, internal polling suggests a tighter race than previous elections. The shift in demographics and priorities is prompting both major parties to recalibrate their messaging.
Local infrastructure remains a pressing concern across the electorate. As developments continue to push outward, transport links have struggled to keep pace. While upgrades to Elizabeth Station and road widening projects have been welcomed, many residents say more is needed to handle current and future demand. Bus services remain patchy in some new suburbs, and congestion is worsening on key commuter routes.
Health and education services are also under pressure. General practitioners are reportedly in short supply in newer areas, and school capacity issues have sparked debate at council forums. While both major parties have flagged intentions to boost funding, the timeline for delivery remains a sticking point for many voters.
Employment is another priority. Spence was heavily impacted by the decline of manufacturing in the past two decades, particularly after the closure of Holden’s Elizabeth plant in 2017. While logistics and warehousing jobs have grown along the Northern Connector corridor, many of these roles are casual or lower paid. There is widespread appetite for new industries, apprenticeships, and better pathways into skilled work.
Amid these challenges, the Greens have made modest inroads among younger voters in parts of Salisbury and Elizabeth Vale, particularly where housing affordability and environmental concerns intersect. Luke Skinner is standing for the Greens, while other confirmed candidates include Darryl Bothe for One Nation and John Bennett for Family First. Although unlikely to threaten the two major parties directly, these minor players may influence preferences and local debates in key booths.
Labor campaigners remain confident in Burnell’s performance and note his background as a local resident and defence veteran resonates well across the community. His involvement in pushing for infrastructure upgrades and public housing investment is likely to form the backbone of his campaign. Yet they also acknowledge that this election may require more active listening and community outreach than in previous years.
Political analysts suggest that while Spence is still leaning toward Labor, it may no longer be as safe as it once was. The growing cultural diversity, generational turnover, and rapid urban development all contribute to a more fluid political environment. The combination of economic pressures and unmet service expectations creates space for challengers to gain ground.
The Voice referendum held in 2023 also revealed a noteworthy shift in sentiment, with Spence recording one of the highest ‘No’ votes in the country—over 70 per cent. That outcome has further signalled a discontent among voters who feel left out of national conversations.
With no single issue dominating, and the electorate more diverse than ever, Spence stands out as one to watch in the upcoming federal contest. It may not flip immediately, but the path ahead for Labor is no longer assured.
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