Labor remains ahead in the latest Essential Report, but the September numbers show a sudden rise for One Nation. The party has jumped to 13 per cent of the primary vote, up seven points, pulling disaffected Coalition voters and exposing fractures on the right of politics. Labor sits steady at 35 per cent, while the Coalition has slumped to 27 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads 51–44, with 6 per cent undecided, narrowing only slightly from the 2022 election.
The poll, based on a sample of 1,000 Australians, suggests Pauline Hanson’s party is reshaping the conservative vote. Online reactions underline the split. Some Coalition supporters argue the rise shows voters on the right are demanding a tougher line, while others warn that fragmentation could hand Labor another term.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is holding that lead despite his personal approval slipping from its post-election high. His approval spiked close to 60 per cent after winning office in 2022, but has since declined into the mid-40s, with disapproval climbing to similar levels. The latest figures put approval and disapproval at almost even, showing an electorate divided on his leadership.
Immigration sits at the heart of voter concern. Fifty-three per cent of Australians say the immigration cap of 185,000 places for 2025/26 is too high, with only 7 per cent calling it too low. The perception of immigration’s benefits has shifted sharply. In 2019, 51 per cent saw it as positive, but that number has now dropped to 41 per cent. Those calling it negative have climbed from 35 per cent to 41 per cent, crossing for the first time in the series.
The same survey tested views on racism and social cohesion. Thirty-three per cent strongly agree and 36 per cent somewhat agree that there is tension between people of different races and nationalities in Australia. More than six in ten believe people are scared to say what they really think because they don’t want to be labelled as racist. On personal experience, 28 per cent of Australians say they have faced racism or racial discrimination, while 30 per cent report a family member has experienced it.
There are mixed views on whether the country is becoming less prejudiced. Forty-one per cent think Australia is less racist than it has been in the past, but 30 per cent disagree. That division echoes the polarisation seen in immigration attitudes and in Albanese’s own approval trend.
The Essential Report also tested views on the government’s climate policy. Almost half of respondents, 48 per cent, say the new 2035 emissions reduction targets are about right, showing stronger acceptance of the government’s position on climate than on migration.
Taken together, the numbers paint a picture of a country under strain, with immigration and race dominating voter unease. Labor is holding ground, but Coalition instability has created space for One Nation’s rise. The challenge for Albanese is to maintain Labor’s lead while his personal ratings soften and divisions across the electorate harden.
Source: Essential Report, September 2025 (Essential Research / Essential Media Communications)
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