Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has moved ahead of Labor on primary vote support in a new national poll, placing further pressure on the Coalition and raising questions about how Australia’s political contest could change before the 2028 federal election.
The RedBridge Group and Accent Research poll, published by The Australian Financial Review, put One Nation on 31 per cent, up four points from the previous survey. Labor fell three points to 28 per cent, while the Coalition dropped two points to 20 per cent. The Greens recorded 12 per cent and other parties and candidates accounted for 9 per cent. The poll surveyed 1005 voters and carried a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
Labor still led One Nation by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, calculated by asking respondents where they would direct their preferences. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also remained ahead as preferred prime minister on 31 per cent, followed by Hanson on 25 per cent and Liberal leader Angus Taylor on 14 per cent.
The result does not mean One Nation is certain to replace the Coalition as the main challenger to Labor. Polls are snapshots of voter sentiment and can move sharply between surveys. A Roy Morgan poll conducted from May 4 to 10 placed Labor on 30.5 per cent, the Coalition on 25 per cent and One Nation on 22 per cent. That poll also had Labor leading the Coalition 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
But the latest RedBridge and Accent Research numbers show why One Nation can no longer be treated as a minor disturbance on the conservative edge of Australian politics.
A favourability chart shared by RedBridge director Kos Samaras shows Hanson recording a net favourability score of plus 91 among One Nation voters. She also recorded a positive score among Liberal voters and among voters aligned with the Liberal National Party, Country Liberal Party and Nationals. Albanese remained strongly positive among Labor voters but was deeply unpopular across the conservative blocs.
Samaras described the result as evidence of an electorate separating into political camps.
“The two-party system most Australians grew up with is gone. The real contest, unless something changes by 2028, now runs between Labor and One Nation, and the Coalition is a spectator in the stands….eating donuts”
“The two-party system most Australians grew up with is gone. The real contest, unless something changes by 2028, now runs between Labor and One Nation, and the Coalition is a spectator in the stands….eating donuts,” he wrote.
“The primary vote tells the story plainly. One Nation 31. Labor 28. The Coalition a deep third on 20. Labor still winning on 2PP.”
Samaras said Hanson’s reach into the Coalition’s voter base was the key feature of the poll.
“Labor has bled support to the minor parties (others), voters drifting left and sideways. The Coalition has bled something heavier, straight into One Nation, even after the Budget!!!. Look at where Hanson is net positive: Liberal voters, LNP voters, the Coalition’s own right flank. She is not just nibbling at the edges of their base but having nice pizza slice bites at it.”
Hanson responded cautiously to the result while thanking supporters.
“I have always said the polls are only polls, but it’s clear Australia is asking for a different direction.
“I want to thank you for your support and the One Nation team will be working hard to help this country every day.”
The polling surge places greater attention on One Nation’s policies. The party’s official immigration platform proposes capping visas at 130,000 a year, deporting 75,000 people it describes as illegal migrants, tightening skilled and student visa settings, restoring Temporary Protection Visas and introducing an eight-year waiting period for citizenship and welfare access. It also proposes withdrawing Australia from the United Nations Refugee Convention and refusing entry to migrants from countries it says foster extremist ideologies incompatible with Australian values.
Those proposals are likely to draw close attention from migrant communities, including Indian Australians. India is one of Australia’s largest sources of migration, and many families spend years moving through temporary visas, permanent residency and citizenship. The political appeal of lowering migration may be broad, but any move to delay welfare access or citizenship will also raise questions among migrants who work, pay tax and build their lives in Australia.
One Nation has also pushed a sharp change in energy policy. The party wants Australia to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, repeal net zero-related legislation, abolish the Renewable Energy Target and remove several climate programs and agencies. It says its changes to electricity market rules and energy policy would aim to cut household and business electricity prices by at least 20 per cent.
The party supports coal, gas, hydro and nuclear generation. Its published plan includes advocating for a 1400-megawatt nuclear reactor on Australia’s east coast at an estimated cost of $6.8 billion, with the location to be determined after consultation.
Hanson has also renewed calls to remove most public funding from the ABC and move parts of the broadcaster towards a subscription model, while preserving regional radio services she believes are performing well.
Taken together, the policies show why One Nation’s rise creates a difficult problem for the Coalition. Taylor faces pressure to win back conservative voters without allowing the Liberals and Nationals to be defined entirely by Hanson’s agenda. Labor faces a different problem. While it remains ahead on preferences, the latest poll shows a large group of voters prepared to look beyond the major parties.
The poll also found that 63 per cent of respondents believed Australia was heading in the wrong direction. RedBridge director Tony Barry said the negative mood was fuelling anti-establishment support and pushing some voters away from established political choices.
There is still time before the next federal election. Cost-of-living pressures, housing, migration, tax policy and the performance of the major parties will all shape voter sentiment between now and 2028.
Support Independent Community Journalism
Dear Reader,The Indian Sun exists for one reason: to tell stories that might otherwise go unheard.
We report on local councils, state politics, small businesses and cultural festivals. We focus on the Indian diaspora and the wider multicultural community with care, balance and accountability. We publish in print and online, send regular newsletters and produce video content. We also run media training programs to help community organisations share their own stories.
We operate independently.
Community journalism does not have the backing of large media corporations. Advertising revenue fluctuates. Platform algorithms change. Costs continue to rise. Yet the need for credible, grounded reporting in a multicultural Australia has never been greater.
When you support The Indian Sun, you support:
• Independent reporting on issues affecting migrant communities
• Coverage of local and state decisions that shape daily life
• A platform for small businesses and community groups
• Media training that builds skills within the community
• Journalism accountable to readers
We cannot cover everything, but we work to cover what matters.
If you value thoughtful reporting that reflects Australia’s diversity, we invite you to contribute. Every donation helps us maintain the quality and consistency of our work.
Please consider making a contribution today.
Thank you for your support.
The Indian Sun Team
