Treasurer Jim Chalmers has released the Centre for Population’s 2025 Population Statement, setting out updated data on how Australia’s population is changing and what that means for the economy and living standards.
The statement points to a clear easing in population growth after the sharp rebound that followed the pandemic. Net overseas migration in 2024–25 has come in lower than earlier forecasts and is now close to half the post-COVID peak. Looking ahead, net overseas migration is expected to moderate to 260,000 in 2025–26 and then fall further over the forecast period.
Population growth is also set to slow. According to the statement, it is expected to ease to 1.3 per cent in 2025–26 and to 1.2 per cent from 2026–27 onwards. That is below the 1.4 per cent average recorded through the 2010s and marks a shift from the faster growth seen in recent years.
Releasing the statement, the Treasurer said it “provides updated and comprehensive data on Australia’s population” and “highlights Australia’s changing demographics and will help inform our approach to building a stronger economy and lifting living standards.”
An ageing population remains one of the defining trends. The statement shows the median age is expected to reach 40 years within the next decade and rise further to 43.7 years by 2065–66. This shift is expected to shape the labour market, public finances and demand for services over coming decades.
An ageing population remains one of the defining trends. The statement shows the median age is expected to reach 40 years within the next decade and rise further to 43.7 years by 2065–66
At the same time, birth rates are forecast to fall further. While still higher than in many comparable countries, Australia’s birth rate is expected to drop to a record low in 2025–26, adding to the long-term pressures created by population ageing.
The government has linked these trends to its broader policy agenda. The Treasurer said the Albanese Government is “rolling out policies to ease pressure on families and make it easier for people to have children if they want to,” pointing to measures such as the new 3 Day Guarantee for early childhood education and care and the expansion and enhancement of paid parental leave.
The statement also places recent demographic shifts in the context of wider economic policy. “We’ve made a lot of progress in our economy in the past few years, including when it comes to building more homes, strengthening our migration settings, investing in skills and helping to ease the cost of living for Australians,” the Treasurer said, adding that “we recognise the job is far from over.”
The government says it will continue to rely on the data and analysis in the 2025 Population Statement as it plans for the years ahead. As the Treasurer put it, the government will “draw on the evidence and insights from the 2025 Population Statement to continue to build a better future for Australia.”
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