Director at RedBridge Group Australia, Kos Samaras, has warned that the destabilisation of Opposition Leader Sussan Ley has little to do with electoral strategy and everything to do with a shrinking faction inside the Liberal Party that has lost its sense of political gravity.
Since the August anti-immigration rallies, roughly a dozen national polls have been published, all placing Labor between 54 and 57 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. “So no, the issue hasn’t hurt them,” Samaras said. “Immigration remains a topic of high salience for conservatives, but very low salience for everyone else. Each time it’s elevated, it doesn’t broaden the Right’s appeal, it simply agitates its extremities and blows wind into One Nation’s sails.”
His comments come after Andrew Hastie’s resignation from the frontbench, which reignited internal friction within the Coalition. Hastie’s decision to step down as Shadow Home Affairs Minister, citing his inability to stay silent on immigration, has emboldened voices demanding a harder nationalist stance. On social media, #Libspill trended within hours, fuelled by accounts cheering the beginning of a “Liberal revival”.
But Samaras said such rhetoric misunderstands the electorate. “Australians might well tell pollsters they want slower population growth. But that’s a bit like saying they’d like lower taxes and cheaper groceries, it’s an expression of frustration, not a voting intention,” he said. “They do not conflate immigration with housing. Across all these polls, housing remains the number-one issue for young Australians, yet they overwhelmingly vote for the Left, Labor or Greens.”
For Samaras, the problem is deeper than polling numbers. “It’s yet another reminder of how absurd it is to import American or British politics into Australia,” he said. “Both those countries face genuine illegal migration crises. Australia doesn’t. What we have instead is an identity crisis ricocheting through parts of conservative politics, with some MPs (not all) so busy borrowing other countries’ outrage, they have forgotten about what may work in the country they live in.”
Ley, meanwhile, has continued projecting a more inclusive tone. At the Hindu Council’s Deepavali celebration in Blacktown this week, she spoke of light triumphing over darkness and of multiculturalism as a strength, not a threat. “Deepavali is one of the most important festivals for Hindu, Sikh and Jain communities, and its message is one that all Australians can relate to,” she said.
Her remarks emphasised family, service and unity—themes that cut sharply against the divisive undertone shaping the immigration debate. “These cherished customs remind us how the traditions, stories and celebrations that people bring from around the world enrich the lives of every Australian,” she told the crowd, thanking the Hindu Council for “celebrating culture, guiding young people, building understanding between faiths, and supporting families and communities”.
For Ley, the challenge is to hold firm against the noise from within her party without alienating the voters the Liberals need to win back. For Samaras, the data already points to where the votes are—and where they aren’t. “The data is unambiguous: divisive policy doesn’t expand the Coalition’s voter base. It shrinks it,” he said.
Whether the Liberals heed that warning or keep chasing the applause of what Samaras called the “echo-chamber nationalists” will determine if the spotlight moves back towards the centre, or fades to the edges of a shrinking stage.
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