The debate over how Indian Australians vote has intensified, with pollsters, economists and community voices contesting the figures that set off one of the most divisive weeks in federal politics.
Roy Morgan’s survey suggests Indian-born Australians are more evenly split between the two major parties than recent commentary has implied. Conducted as part of its continuous Single Source survey between July 2023 and June 2025 (sample size 1,332), the results show 45 per cent support Labor while 39 per cent back the Coalition, with smaller shares for the Greens (8 per cent), One Nation (2 per cent) and others (6 per cent). The breakdown by age shows Labor holding a lead across every bracket, but with the Coalition strongest among older voters—capturing 44 per cent in the 50+ group compared to 42 per cent for Labor. Various commentators have begun circulating these figures, presenting them as a counterpoint to Kos Samaras’s 85 per cent estimate of Indian-Australian support for Labor.
Indian Link, a community publication, which has run election surveys across three cycles, reports similar trends. Its 2025 pre-poll shows Labor on 43 per cent, the Coalition down to 27 per cent, Greens at 12 per cent, and Independents rising to 7 per cent. That shift contrasts with 2019, when the Coalition and Labor were near parity. Indian Link described its findings as “accurate snapshots” that have mirrored national outcomes.
Craig Emerson, a former federal minister and now an economic analyst, argued that the claims of an 85 per cent bloc vote for Labor did not stand up to scrutiny. “Morgan poll suggests Indian voters split 45:39 Labor vs Liberal. But Senator Price says it’s 85:15. Who is the better pollster? Those who vilify Indian immigrants say Senator Price knows best. Convenient, hey?” he wrote.
Kos Samaras, whose remarks on a podcast were cited at the start of the row, has since clarified that his figures were based on research highlighting broader voting patterns across heavily migrant electorates. He pointed to data showing nine of the ten federal electorates with the largest Indian populations are held safely by Labor, with margins exceeding 60 per cent in seats such as Chifley, Greenway and Gellibrand. “Any suggestion that the majority of Indian Australians who live in the above electorates are somehow marginal seat voters who don’t break heavy for Labor is an interesting data observation,” he said.
The episode underlines the weight of the Indian vote in suburban electorates across Sydney and Melbourne, where the community has grown rapidly in the past decade. It also highlights the sensitivity around migration and representation, especially in a climate where housing shortages and rising costs are fuelling sharper political debate.
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