Jim Chalmers, Australia’s Treasurer, has called artificial intelligence the defining economic challenge of the decade. In an opinion piece published in The Guardian, he urges the country to treat AI not as a threat or a novelty, but as a force that demands serious policy, investment and national focus.
Reflecting on his 2017 book Changing Jobs, co-authored with former NBN chief Mike Quigley, Chalmers says the pace of change since then has been astonishing. “Flicking through the book now makes it very clear the pace of change has been breathtaking,” he writes. Canva’s valuation has grown from US$1 billion to over US$30 billion. Data centre operator AirTrunk has expanded from two sites to more than a dozen.
But it is the rise of AI that now dominates the Treasurer’s focus. “Large language models have been adopted seven times faster than the internet and 20 times faster than electricity,” he notes. Technologies like ChatGPT have already changed how people think about work, creativity and problem solving.
Chalmers says the government’s role is to ensure Australians benefit from this shift. “The responsibility we embrace is to make Australian workers, businesses and investors beneficiaries, not victims, of that change.”
He acknowledges the risks, but maintains that Australia has a window of opportunity. Some forecasts suggest AI could lift global GDP by up to 7 per cent in the next decade. PwC estimates the global boost could be $15.7 trillion by 2030. These figures vary widely, but the Treasurer believes that even the more cautious projections would make AI one of the most impactful technologies in economic history.
Chalmers identifies two major areas where AI will reshape the economy. First, it lowers the cost of processing information. “eBay’s AI translation tools have removed language barriers to drive international sales,” he explains. “The increase in cross-border trade is the equivalent of having buyers and sellers 26 per cent closer to one another.” The World Trade Organisation expects AI to reduce trade costs and increase global trade volumes by up to 13 per cent.
Second, cheaper analysis boosts problem-solving. This can reduce the cost of research and development, help businesses overcome skill shortages and lead to increased investment. Chalmers argues that this makes a strong case for AI as a productivity driver.
Concerns about job losses are valid, he says, but need to be weighed against evidence that AI can support and enhance human work. “One study finds that right now, more than half of the use cases of LLMs involve workers iterating back-and-forth with the technology,” he writes. “Another study found that current LLMs often automate only some tasks within roles, freeing up employees to add more value.”
Chalmers points out that many jobs Australians do today did not exist eighty years ago. “We’ve seen this play out before,” he says, referencing the creation of new occupations after the Second World War. While some economists warn of increased occupational polarisation, Chalmers believes many mid-skill roles could evolve, not disappear.
He acknowledges the risk of short-term unemployment if workforce training does not keep pace with the speed of change. That is one reason the government has prioritised investment in education. “But it’s also up to business, unions and the broader community to ensure we continue to build the human capital and skills we need to grasp this opportunity,” he adds.
Beyond the labour market, Chalmers says AI carries serious risks for privacy, democracy and personal security. “The ability of AI to rapidly collate, create and disseminate information and disinformation makes people more vulnerable to fraud and poses a risk to democracies.” He also warns that AI is driving down the cost of surveillance technology while increasing its reach.
Bias in algorithms, ethical concerns, legal accountability and pressure on energy and infrastructure are all on his radar. Yet despite these issues, he remains optimistic about Australia’s potential. “In 2020 Australia was ranked sixth in the world in terms of AI companies and research institutions when accounting for GDP,” he notes. “We are among the top five global destinations for data centres and a world leader in quantum computing.”
Australia’s geographic size, access to renewable energy and strong international partnerships position it well to become a trusted hub for data processing. Government programs like the Capacity Investment Scheme and the Future Made in Australia plan are designed to harness that potential.
The Treasurer outlines five focus areas for the government’s next phase of work on AI: boosting public confidence in the technology, upskilling the workforce, attracting investment in data infrastructure, strengthening Australia’s role in global AI markets, and using AI to improve public services.
“Our intention is to regulate as much as necessary to protect Australians, but as little as possible to encourage innovation,” he writes. Recent moves include investment in PsiQuantum, support for AI adoption centres, voluntary safety standards and a national capability plan.
Artificial intelligence will feature prominently at the upcoming economic reform roundtable, which Chalmers is convening later this month. He sees AI as central to questions of economic resilience, productivity and long-term budget repair.
Chalmers closes by urging a middle path. “We can deploy artificial intelligence in a way consistent with our values if we treat it as an enabler not an enemy.” That, he argues, is not just a political stance, but a practical one. “Empowering people to use AI well is not just a matter of decency or a choice between prosperity and fairness. It is the only way to get the best out of people and technology at the same time.”
Rather than letting AI take over or trying to resist it entirely, the Treasurer wants Australia to engage, shape and benefit from what is coming next.
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