Futures are opening and the mood is grim. As Wall Street prepares for another bloodbath, Australia’s dollar limps into Monday with the kind of weakness that hasn’t been seen since the early COVID panic. Against the US dollar, the AUD fell below 60 cents, touching 59.91. That’s not a typo. The Aussie hasn’t flirted with those levels since 2020. Against the Indian rupee, it’s trading at ₹51.12 – down over 4.7% in a week. For context, it was ₹54.37 just days ago.
If that wasn’t enough of a weekend hangover, US futures are painting the town red before the market even opens. The Nasdaq 100 is down over 5%, and the S&P 500 futures have tumbled 4.5%, marking a three-day loss of 15%. The Dow has lost nearly 6,000 points in the same window. It’s brutal, and yes, comparisons to 1987’s Black Monday and the 2008 crash are making the rounds. For once, they don’t feel exaggerated.
The trigger? Tariffs. Again. Donald Trump’s return to economic warpath has sent shockwaves through markets. His administration has announced the resumption of broad trade tariffs, and China has responded with a hefty 34% import tax on American goods starting April 10. It’s not just rhetoric this time—it’s policy. And traders are preparing for the fallout.
In a weekend briefing, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed there would be no delay in implementing tariffs. That was all it took. Hedge funds, asset managers and Wall Street’s biggest trading desks are bracing for forced liquidations and panic selling. Already, major houses are pulling staff in for emergency shifts to man trading desks ahead of the Asia-Pacific open.
There’s chatter about value stocks being oversold. That always shows up when markets get bludgeoned. But even the value hunters seem to be keeping their powder dry. This doesn’t smell like a buying opportunity just yet—it smells like fear. One prominent US economist said the mood feels like “2008, but faster.” Others are already calling it Black Monday, even before the sun has risen in New York.
The Fed hasn’t spoken yet, and that silence is getting louder by the hour. Whether Jerome Powell chooses to intervene—or whether the White House ends up blaming the Fed for staying put—is the question on everyone’s mind. One White House economic adviser tried to calm nerves on Sunday, claiming Trump isn’t trying to crash the market. Not everyone is buying it.
Back home, the Australian sharemarket is staring down what could be its worst session in nearly five years. Asset managers are preparing for widespread redemptions, particularly from hedge funds with large tech and US exposure. For everyday Australians, the ripple effects are already visible. Super funds will feel this. Travel becomes more expensive. Imported goods, too. And if this persists, the Reserve Bank may be pushed into action—though it’s unclear what good that will do with a global trade war raging.
The weaker AUD against the INR is helping those bringing money into Australia—like students receiving tuition support from India—as each rupee now buys more dollars, making funds stretch further. But for anyone sending money to India for wages, property payments or family support, the exchange rate hurts, with each dollar converting to fewer rupees. That’s assuming the rate doesn’t slide further.
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