Supermarkets are setting purchase limits, shoppers are scanning empty shelves, and cafés are adjusting their menus. Australia’s egg shortage has turned into a nationwide headache. From Melbourne’s bustling cafés to Brisbane’s suburban supermarkets, the crisis has left households and businesses scrambling for alternatives. The problem isn’t limited to Victoria, nor is it a short-term disruption. A series of avian flu outbreaks stretching back to 2023 has wiped out close to 20% of the country’s laying hens, leaving a gap that won’t be filled overnight.
The outbreaks have spread across multiple states, forcing farms in Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, and the ACT to cull more than 1.8 million chickens since mid-2024. Authorities have contained past outbreaks, but a new strain of H7N8 has now surfaced in Victoria, triggering fresh restrictions. Farms near Euroa are under lockdown, with strict biosecurity measures in place to prevent further spread. Unlike the strains detected in previous outbreaks, this one isn’t linked to earlier cases, and authorities have been quick to reassure the public that it isn’t the deadly H5N1 variant causing havoc overseas.
For consumers, the difference between outbreaks is academic. What matters is whether there are eggs on the shelves. The shortages have sent prices climbing, with comparisons being made to the US, where egg prices surged by more than 60% in a year. Australian shoppers have already noticed the strain, with some supermarkets struggling to keep stock for more than a few hours before supplies run out. While no official data has surfaced on the scale of price hikes yet, past shortages have shown that when eggs become scarce, price increases tend to follow a familiar script.
Major supermarkets have responded with purchase limits, a move eerily reminiscent of pandemic-era rationing. Coles and Woolworths have both acknowledged supply constraints, stating that they are working closely with producers to stabilise availability. The challenge for these retail giants is that their supply chains rely on large-scale egg producers. These are precisely the farms hit hardest by bird flu outbreaks. Smaller retailers and farmers markets, which source from a broader mix of producers, have managed to weather the crisis better. Social media reports suggest independent grocers have been more reliable for finding eggs, though even they are feeling the pressure.
The supply issues go beyond cartons in supermarket fridges. Eggs are a crucial ingredient in baking, pasta, and processed foods, meaning the ripple effects of the shortage could extend beyond household groceries. Industry experts warn that if shortages persist, restaurants and food manufacturers could see increased costs, which may flow through to menu prices and packaged goods. Some consumers are already shifting to alternative proteins, putting upward pressure on chicken and dairy products.
The recovery timeline is slow and unavoidable. Layer hens need at least 18 weeks to mature before they start producing, so even the farms that have already restocked won’t be back to full capacity for months. Egg Farmers of Australia estimate that production will only stabilise by mid-2025, though some recovery is expected in stages. That timeline could stretch even further if new outbreaks emerge or if farms face additional disruptions.
Supermarkets and producers alike are banking on consumers adapting in the meantime. During previous shortages, shoppers turned to alternative sources, sought out independent suppliers, and adjusted their purchasing habits. Whether that will be enough to prevent further price increases remains to be seen. With Coles and Woolworths dominating 67% of the market, the structure of Australia’s grocery industry leaves little room for price cushioning when supply chains hit turbulence.
For now, shoppers will need patience and cafés will need creativity. The nationwide shortage has shown just how fragile food supply chains can be when disease strikes. Farmers are rebuilding, retailers are juggling supply constraints, and consumers are adjusting expectations. Whether the industry learns from this crisis or simply waits for the next one is another question altogether. For the moment, anyone hoping for an easy dozen eggs might have to keep looking or pay a little more for the privilege.
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