A new COVID-19 variant has made its way to Australia, and it’s causing a stir among health experts. Known as XEC, this variant has already been detected in 29 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and China. Now, it’s Australia’s turn to figure out what this means for the coming months.
XEC, a recombinant variant, has come about by blending two Omicron subvariants: KS 1.1 and KP 3.3. In simple terms, when a person gets infected with two strains of a virus at once, the strains mix to create a new version. That’s exactly what happened with XEC, though it’s still unclear exactly where this strain originated. Many reports suggest it first appeared in Germany around May or June, but that’s still up for debate.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has marked XEC as a variant under monitoring, meaning they’re keeping a close eye on it to determine if it presents a serious risk to public health. So far, there’s no indication that it’s more dangerous than other strains, but the transmission rate is something health authorities are concerned about.
As of late September, Australia had recorded 23 known cases of XEC, though experts believe the strain may have arrived in the country earlier than initially thought. According to infectious diseases expert Dr Griffin, XEC makes up between 5 and 10 per cent of the country’s total COVID-19 cases. Given Australia’s experience with past waves, the emergence of XEC has raised some questions about whether it could spark a new surge of cases over the summer.
In terms of how XEC spreads, it’s business as usual. Like other variants, it’s passed from person to person through respiratory droplets or airborne particles when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks. The symptoms aren’t unfamiliar either—fever, coughing, sore throat, and shortness of breath. Though most people experience mild illness, vulnerable groups, such as older people and those with underlying conditions, remain at risk of more severe disease.
This comes at a time when the country is still grappling with COVID-19’s impact. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that June 2024 saw 643 doctor-certified COVID-19 deaths—the highest number recorded since January 2023, which had 719. While that figure is a 9.4% increase compared to June 2023, it remains significantly lower than June 2022, which saw 853 deaths. Between January and June 2024, Australia recorded 2,245 COVID-19 deaths, marking a 20.3% drop compared to the previous year and a staggering 58.4% drop compared to 2022.
Interestingly, as the pandemic has progressed, there’s been a shift in the number of people dying with COVID-19, rather than directly from it. In June 2024, 179 deaths were linked to COVID-19 as a contributing factor, though the virus was not the primary cause.
It’s not just COVID-19 that remains a concern. Other acute respiratory infections, such as influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), have also been taking a toll. The number of influenza-related deaths in July 2024 stands at 193, which could rise as further data rolls in. This figure already exceeds the 166 deaths recorded in June 2022 and is comparable to the 195 and 196 deaths seen in July and August 2019.
RSV, too, has been persistent, with higher numbers of deaths recorded in each month of 2024 so far, compared to 2022 and 2023. It’s worth noting, however, that there are more deaths with RSV than directly from the virus, highlighting the role of other health complications in these outcomes.
Looking ahead, the XEC variant’s spread in Australia will no doubt continue to be closely monitored. While the numbers are still low, the appearance of a new strain always brings the possibility of another wave, especially as the country moves into the warmer months. Whether this leads to new health measures or simply calls for caution remains to be seen.
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