Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has overtaken both Labor and the Coalition on the Victorian primary vote for the first time, while new polling suggests Premier Jacinta Allan’s government is relying heavily on support from migrant communities as it heads towards the November state election.
The latest RedBridge/Accent Research poll, published by the Australian Financial Review, places One Nation on 27 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of Labor and the Coalition, both on 26 per cent.
Political strategist and RedBridge director Kos Samaras said the figures point to a three-way contest rather than a traditional two-party race.
“Start with the topline. Labor 26, Coalition 26, One Nation 27. This is no longer a two-party state,” Samaras said.
“One Nation is running level with both majors on the primary vote and hence, a 2PP is not always the best diagnostic tool in working out which seats will fall or be won.”
Drawing on polling of more than 5,000 Victorian voters, Samaras said Labor’s electoral support is increasingly concentrated among overseas-born voters, while backing among Australian-born voters has weakened.
“Birthplace has become one of the sharpest predictors of the Labor vote in Victoria,” he said.
“Among Australian-born voters, Labor sits on 24. Among voters born overseas, it’s 35. That eleven-point gap is Labor’s firewall.”
He added that the difference is likely to be even greater among non-English speaking migrant communities.
“Note, that’s 35 with UK included, which means it’s higher within NESB cohorts.”
Samaras said the contrast is particularly visible across Melbourne’s outer suburbs, where elections are often decided.
“Outer metro, Australian-born: Labor 25, One Nation 30, Labor behind. Outer metro, born overseas: Labor 37, One Nation 22, Labor miles ahead.”
Drawing on polling of more than 5,000 Victorian voters, Samaras said Labor’s electoral support is increasingly concentrated among overseas-born voters, while backing among Australian-born voters has weakened
He said a similar pattern exists across Melbourne’s inner suburbs.
“Same pattern inner metro: Labor 26 among the Australian-born, 36 in migrant communities.”
Based on those voting patterns, Samaras identified several seats that could prove difficult for Labor if the polling trend continues.
“The seats at serious risk IF this pattern holds are the lower-diversity, Australian-born seats. Ripon. Bass. Hastings where Labor’s primary will be in the low 20s.”
He also pointed to outer metropolitan electorates.
“And critically, the outer-metro mortgage belt where the migrant share is thinner, Pakenham and Melton.”
“To hold these, Labor doesn’t need a nudge on its primary. It needs to find close to ten points of primary vote in exactly the cohort that’s currently deserting it, Australian born, outer-suburban, financially stressed, TAFE educated.”
By contrast, Samaras said Labor’s position appears stronger in electorates with larger migrant populations.
“The more defendable seats are the diverse ones. Yan Yean, Point Cook, Cranbourne, Narre Warren North and South. High migrant populations, first-generation voters, and that’s where Labor’s 37 in outer-metro migrant communities does its work.”
He warned, however, that demographic change could reduce that advantage over time.
“But here’s the complication, and it’s the one Labor should worry about most. Diversity alone isn’t the shield, recent migration is.”
“Where the diversity is established, second and third generation, born here, the born-overseas premium fades.”
“The seats at serious risk IF this pattern holds are the lower-diversity, Australian-born seats. Ripon. Bass. Hastings where Labor’s primary will be in the low 20S.”
Samaras said this could place electorates such as Sydenham, Kororoit and St Albans under greater electoral pressure than their demographics suggest.
“The same ten-point problem, arrives one generation later.”
Outside Melbourne, he said One Nation’s strongest gains are emerging in regional Victoria.
“Then there’s everything outside Melbourne, Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong. In the regional cities Labor is still competitive on 28.”
“But in rural Victoria the floor has fallen out: Labor 21, One Nation 34 and among Australian-born rural voters, Labor 20, One Nation 35.”
“In the bush, One Nation is now the dominant party.”
Samaras also argued the Coalition faces its own electoral challenge despite Labor’s difficulties.
“What about the Coalition? Well, they can not win off their own steam.”
“Labor may need a 10% swing on primary in the seats I have mentioned but the Coalition needs that to govern without the support of One Nation.”
The polling comes as the Victorian Liberals continue dealing with internal tensions surrounding upper house MP Moira Deeming. Party officials are expected to consider her future as the Liberal candidate for Western Metropolitan Region following recent controversy, an issue that has drawn renewed attention to divisions within the opposition ahead of the state election.
The Victorian election will be held on 28 November. The RedBridge/Accent Research survey questioned 5,516 Victorian voters between 17 and 28 June and reported a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points.
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