Police carrying guns as standard equipment does not necessarily lead to more officer-involved shootings, according to a Monash University study examining 50 years of Australian police shooting data.
The study, Does Routine Arming Increase Police Officer-Involved Shootings? Evidence From Australia (1970–2020), analysed incidents between 1970 and 2020 and found that the move to routine arming in New South Wales and Victoria was not followed by a rise in shootings.
Researchers examined the period after New South Wales made firearms a mandatory part of police equipment in 1991 and Victoria followed in 1993. The study tracked 581 officer-involved shooting incidents by cross-checking news archives with coronial and police reports, as Australia does not have a national database for non-fatal police shootings.
Lead researcher Dr Ross Hendy, from Monash University’s School of Social Sciences, said the findings offer real-world evidence for countries still debating whether police officers should routinely carry firearms.
“The data shows that the transition to routine arming, moving from a system where officers chose when to carry a gun to a requirement that they wear one at all times on duty, was not followed by an increase in shootings. In fact, after these policy changes in the early 1990s, we actually saw a downward trend in shooting rates,” Dr Hendy said.
The question of arming police remains contested in countries including England, New Zealand, Norway and Scotland, where concerns often centre on public trust, police culture and the risk of a more authoritarian model of policing.
The study tracked 581 officer-involved shooting incidents by cross-checking news archives with coronial and police reports, as Australia does not have a national database for non-fatal police shootings
Dr Hendy said the Australian data challenged a common assumption in those debates.
“While the research does not suggest that routinely arming police directly caused the decrease in shootings, our findings clearly contradict the long-held view that more guns on belts inevitably lead to more people being shot. Our analysis remained consistent across multiple scientific methods: making firearms a standard part of the uniform did not lead to an increase in violence.”
The study argues that police firearm policy should be understood as part of a broader system, rather than as a simple decision about equipment. It found that training, de-escalation practices, accountability and organisational culture can shape how officers respond in high-risk situations.
Dr Zarina Vakhitova, a Senior Lecturer in Criminology at Monash University’s School of Social Sciences, said the presence of a firearm alone did not explain shooting outcomes.
“Our research suggests that arming police can be done safely if the right conditions are in place. When you combine arming with better tactical training and de-escalation protocols, it acts as a critical safeguard,” Dr Vakhitova said.
The findings point to the need for any move towards routine arming to be accompanied by context-specific training that places conflict resolution and restraint at the centre of police practice.
Dr Hendy said the Australian experience could inform policy discussions overseas, particularly in jurisdictions where routine arming remains politically and publicly sensitive.
“This isn’t just about whether a police officer carries a gun; it’s about the training, culture and accountability structures that surround that officer. When you invest in de-escalation and professional standards, the availability of a firearm does not automatically lead to its use. It is a structural and cultural issue as much as it is a policy one,” Dr Hendy said.
The research adds to international debate about police use of force at a time when governments are weighing public safety, officer safety and community trust. Its central finding is narrow but important: routine arming, by itself, was not followed by an increase in police shootings in Australia.
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