South Australia goes to the polls this Saturday in a state election that, on its surface, looks close to settled. Premier Peter Malinauskas and his Labor government are heading towards a second term with a commanding lead in every published poll. But the contest beneath the headline numbers tells a more complicated story, one connecting directly to anxieties reshaping politics across the country.
The numbers are stark. A Newspoll conducted from 11 to 17 February, surveying 1,057 South Australians, put Labor’s primary vote at 44 per cent, One Nation at 24 per cent, the Liberals at 14 per cent, and the Greens at 12 per cent. A YouGov poll completed in mid-March, with a sample of 1,265, had Labor at 38 per cent, One Nation at 22 per cent, Liberal at 19 per cent, and the Greens at 12 per cent, with Labor leading 59-41 over each of the other parties on a two-party preferred basis. More striking still is what has happened to the centre-right vote that has historically belonged to the Liberals. Much of it appears to be flowing to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, marking a sharp rise from the party’s 2.6 per cent result at the 2022 election.
One Nation’s surge in South Australia is the most visible local expression of something building in outer-suburban and regional Australia for several years. Voters are expressing a sense that mainstream parties have not adequately managed population growth, housing costs, and access to services. Migration has become the shorthand for that frustration, even when the underlying pressures are more mixed.
Nationally, the mood around migration has hardened. The 2025 Lowy Institute Poll found 53 per cent of Australians believe the total number of migrants each year is too high, a five-point increase and close to the 54 per cent recorded in 2018. A poll commissioned by the Institute of Public Affairs found 71 per cent of Australians supported a temporary pause on immigration until more infrastructure is built, up from 60 per cent in 2023. Among those aged 18 to 24, support for a pause rose from 50 per cent to 74 per cent over the same period.
Net overseas migration has, in fact, been falling. The Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed that it dropped to 306,000 in the 2024-25 financial year, down from 429,000 a year earlier. But for many voters, the cumulative effect of recent high-migration years, felt through rents, infrastructure pressure, and competition for services, has not yet receded.
In South Australia, the housing picture has its own particular character. Adelaide’s median rent hit $600 a week in early 2026, a new record, having grown 3.4 per cent across 2025 according to InDaily. Cost of living and housing affordability have consistently ranked among the top concerns for voters, shaping how economic pressures are experienced at the household level.
One Nation’s platform addresses migration directly. The party proposes capping total visas at 130,000 per year, with a stated aim of returning to what it describes as the 20th-century average of around 70,000. Whether this message is landing in specific electorates, or whether One Nation’s vote is driven more broadly by dissatisfaction with the major parties, remains a subject of debate. Election analyst Antony Green has argued that while the party’s polling surge is real, translating that support into lower house seats will be more difficult, with the upper house offering a clearer path to representation.
Among Indian-Australians, voting patterns remain closely divided. Economic pressures, not migration, continue to drive priorities. Whether the national debate shifts that balance in SA is yet to be seen
The Liberal Party’s position is the more uncertain one. Ashton Hurn, who assumed the leadership in December 2025, has not reversed the party’s decline. The Liberals have proposed establishing a Tax Reform Commission on stamp duty, alongside immediate relief for first home buyers purchasing properties under $1 million, and a $15,000 concession for downsizers aged over 55. On health, Hurn has proposed planning for Royal Adelaide Hospital expansion, arguing the $2.4 billion facility is already too small. But with primary support in some polls as low as 14 per cent, the party faces a diminished lower house presence. Whether the Liberals or One Nation emerge as the formal opposition will likely shape the state’s political direction over the next term.
The Malinauskas government has campaigned on its record and a set of housing measures. Labor abolished stamp duty for first home buyers of new homes and announced a further scheme removing stamp duty for downsizers aged 60 and above on newly built properties up to $2 million, alongside a $500 million land acquisition fund to support housing supply. Housing advocates have argued these measures fall short, pointing to the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council’s forecast that Australia will build about 938,000 dwellings over the five-year Housing Accord period, leaving a shortfall of 262,000 against the 1.2 million target.
For multicultural communities, the conversation is more nuanced. Nationally, Roy Morgan research from 2025 found that Indian-Australians are among the more politically competitive migrant cohorts, with 45 per cent supporting the ALP, 39 per cent the Liberal-National Coalition, and 8 per cent the Greens. Among those aged 50 and above, the Coalition holds a narrow lead of 44 per cent to 42 per cent. These surveys consistently show the community’s priorities centred on cost of living, health care, and education rather than migration policy itself. How those priorities play out among Adelaide’s growing migrant communities, and whether the broader migration debate influences engagement at the ballot box, remains an open question.
Both Labor and Liberal have largely avoided making migration a central state-level issue, where policy levers are limited. Yet the size of One Nation’s vote suggests the national debate is shaping the state contest regardless.
As South Australians head to the polls this Saturday, a few questions linger. One is whether One Nation’s primary vote in regional and outer-suburban electorates translates into seats, or whether preferences and local dynamics limit its impact. Another is whether the Liberal Party retains enough ground to function as a credible opposition. The gap between housing policy commitments and the scale of demand will also be closely watched. More broadly, the result will offer an early indication of whether shifting sentiment on migration and economic pressure is beginning to reshape voting behaviour, or whether South Australians opt for continuity at a time of uncertainty.
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