The latest Newspoll numbers paint a grim picture for the Coalition, whose primary vote has sunk to just 24 per cent nationwide. Labor remains steady on 36 per cent, while One Nation continues its climb to 15 per cent—its strongest showing since 2016. The Greens sit at 11 per cent, with 14 per cent backing other minor parties and independents.
According to projections by 6 News, Labor would gain one more seat to reach 95, while the Coalition would lose eight, dropping to just 35 nationally. One Nation is on track to secure three lower house seats, reflecting its growing foothold across regional Queensland and New South Wales. Independents are also expected to increase their presence, rising to 15 seats.
RedBridge Director Kos Samaras says the numbers reveal a deeper structural problem for the Liberal Party, particularly in metropolitan areas. “Younger voters aren’t just drifting away from the Coalition, they are culturally, psychologically and socially detached,” he said. “It’s why our polling reveals only 13 per cent of Gen Z women supporting the Coalition. You don’t end up with these sort of polling numbers unless they are a product of deep undercurrents.”
He argues that the party’s message no longer resonates with younger Australians. “They’re not winnable via a standard economic pitch either. Mainly because the party has abandoned any genuine conversation about how it plans to address the economic challenges unique to their generation—housing, insecure work, and cost-of-living pressures,” Samaras said.
The National Party’s recent shift away from net zero has only added to the Coalition’s internal contradictions. Samaras believes the split within conservative politics is accelerating. “While One Nation surges across the regions at the expense of the Coalition, it’s the Liberal Party’s primary vote in the big cities that’s taking the real beating, and it’s happening in a big way—it will be favouring Labor in a big way.”
The latest 6 News projection shows this clearly. Labor is forecast to flip key urban Liberal seats including La Trobe, Mitchell and Bowman, while One Nation is expected to capture Capricornia, Hinkler and Wright from the LNP. The Nationals, by contrast, are projected to make modest gains, picking up Bendigo and Bullwinkel.
The Newspoll results also highlight a collapse in Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s personal ratings. Her approval has dropped to just 25 per cent, down six points in a month, while dissatisfaction has risen seven points to 58 per cent. That puts her net rating at minus 33, the lowest for a Liberal leader since the Abbott era.
Samaras’s analysis aligns with his earlier warnings about the psychological divide shaping Australian politics. Baby boomers, he argues, were once swing voters influenced by economics and leadership, but younger generations are “self-sorted” into fixed political tribes. “This part of the electorate will decide 2028 and reshape our politics completely by 2031,” he said.
The rise of One Nation, meanwhile, reflects a different kind of voter disillusionment. Regional conservatives frustrated by the Coalition’s climate and migration stance are drifting toward Pauline Hanson’s party, which is now polling ahead of the Nationals in parts of Queensland.
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