Greens hold, Labor creeps: The Left’s tug-of-war in Melbourne

By Maria Irene
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Greens leader Adam Bandt is no stranger to tight political contests. In 2010, he made history by winning the inner-Melbourne seat as the first Greens candidate elected to the House of Representatives at a general election. Fifteen years on, he’s once again preparing for a fight—not just to hold his seat, but to defend the Greens’ most prominent federal foothold against a renewed Labor challenge and a crowded field of contenders.

The Division of Melbourne, covering suburbs like Fitzroy, Carlton, North Melbourne, Docklands, and the CBD, has long been a laboratory for progressive politics. Once a Labor stronghold, the seat has shifted with the city’s changing identity. An influx of younger, university-educated, and socially progressive residents has helped the Greens maintain control since 2010. But the upcoming federal election is shaping up as a test of whether that dominance still holds, especially with Labor reasserting itself in the race.

Adam Bandt’s main challenger is Labor’s Sarah Witty, a public servant with strong ties to the arts and education sectors. She’s campaigning on a platform aligned with the Albanese government’s national agenda—incremental reform, climate responsibility without disruption, and practical housing solutions. The race also includes Liberal candidate Steph Hunt, former AFL star Anthony Koutoufides and “MAFS” personality Tim Smith running as independents, One Nation’s Melanie Casey, and Helen Huang from the Fusion Party.

As Greens leader, Bandt has spent the past three years trying to shift national politics leftward. In a minority parliament, his party held the balance of power in the Senate and wielded influence on key legislation. They pushed Labor harder on climate and housing, eventually securing an extra $3 billion for social and affordable homes through the Housing Australia Future Fund negotiations.

Bandt is now seeking a sixth term as Melbourne’s MP, continuing to frame the Greens as the only party prepared to confront Australia’s overlapping crises of inequality, unaffordable housing, and climate change.

Greens leader Adam Bandt hits the pavement with volunteers in his bid for a sixth term in Melbourne. Holding the seat with 60.15% of the two-candidate preferred vote in 2022, Bandt is campaigning hard on rent control, free public transport, and a ban on new coal and gas—hoping to keep the Greens’ stronghold firmly intact amid a growing Labor push

“We’re fighting for rent controls, free public transport, and an end to new coal and gas,” Bandt told voters at a campaign event in Carlton Gardens. “Labor talks a big game, but they’re still approving fossil fuel projects and giving tax breaks to property investors.”

But while Bandt remains popular in the seat, his national profile—and perceived ideological rigidity—means he faces pressure to show he’s still in touch with local concerns. Some voters are also beginning to question whether the Greens’ strategy of high-stakes negotiation is helping or hindering the pace of reform.

Labor’s Sarah Witty faces a steep climb to unseat Bandt, but party insiders are quietly hopeful of closing the gap. In 2022, Bandt won with 60.15% of the two-candidate preferred vote against Labor’s 39.85%—a comfortable margin, but notably down from the Greens’ peak in previous years. Labor’s vote had previously slipped to third place in 2016 and 2019 behind the Liberals but reclaimed second in the last election, marking a shift that some in the ALP see as a foundation for future competitiveness. While the seat is still seen as safe for the Greens, the numbers suggest that Labor is no longer completely out of the conversation.

Witty has focused on delivering a positive, practical campaign. Her messaging draws heavily on the achievements of the Albanese government—cutting power bills through energy rebates, expanding public housing, and growing clean energy jobs. While she avoids criticising Bandt directly, her campaign team says voters are “tired of yelling from the sidelines” and want progressive voices within government rather than adjacent to it.

“Young people in Melbourne want change, but they also want results,” Witty said in a statement. “Labor is delivering on climate, housing, and transport. This is not the time to gamble with ideology.”

Adding colour to the contest are several minor party and independent candidates, including some with recognition beyond politics. Anthony Koutoufides, former Carlton AFL star, is running as an independent, promising to bring “common sense and community values” back into public life. Tim Smith, another independent and reality TV personality, is running on a small government, anti-establishment platform. Their chances of winning are slim, but they may attract protest votes from those disillusioned with the major parties.

Sarah Witty’s campaign team out in force in Melbourne’s CBD, where Labor is aiming to close the 20-point gap from 2022. With the Greens’ Adam Bandt holding the seat on a 60.15% two-candidate preferred vote, Witty is betting that a practical message on climate, housing, and cost-of-living can shift the tide in this progressive battleground

Steph Hunt, the Liberal candidate, is running a low-profile campaign in a seat long considered hostile territory for conservatives. The Liberal Party won less than 10% of the primary vote in 2022 and has not seriously contested the seat in over a decade.

Melanie Casey from One Nation is expected to campaign on cost-of-living pressures and national security, though her party’s reach in this inner-city electorate is minimal.

Helen Huang, from the science-focused Fusion Party, may draw interest from younger, tech-savvy voters, though the party’s overall vote share remains modest.

The major issues in Melbourne—climate, housing, and transport—reflect the electorate’s progressive leanings but also reveal policy fractures.

Bandt is calling for a 75% emissions reduction target by 2030 and a total ban on new coal and gas. The Greens have also proposed a “public renewables” scheme to supercharge the energy transition. Labor supports a 43% reduction by 2030 and has introduced the Safeguard Mechanism to cap industrial emissions, while also backing manufacturing incentives and large-scale electrification.

Liberal candidate Steph Hunt on the campaign trail in Melbourne, engaging voters near Queen Victoria Market. While the seat has long been out of reach for conservatives—with the Liberals polling under 10% in 2022—Hunt’s ground effort adds another voice to the contest dominated by Greens and Labor

Housing is equally polarising. Bandt wants to freeze rents, end negative gearing, and build a million public homes. Labor promotes the Housing Australia Future Fund and the National Housing Accord, with a target of 40,000 new homes through joint efforts with state governments and developers. Renters in Melbourne—where the vacancy rate is under 1%—are sceptical of both.

Transport is the third major front. The Greens support free nationwide public transport and substantial network investment. Labor has focused on continuing support for existing state-led projects and federal co-funding. Independents have floated ideas like community-led mobility schemes and localised EV rollouts.

The result in Melbourne won’t determine government—but it will help define the future of progressive politics in Australia. The Greens are testing whether a more radical platform can sustain and grow in an inner-urban seat. Labor is betting that reform-minded voters want results from inside the tent.

Bandt holding the seat would cement the Greens’ authority in inner Melbourne. A strong Labor showing would signal a shift back toward the centre-left. An independent surprise, though unlikely, would further disrupt old party loyalties.

What happens in Melbourne may ripple across electorates in Sydney, Brisbane, and even Perth. Early voting has begun, and all eyes are now on this patch of Victoria where progressive ambition meets political pragmatism.


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