The federal electorate of Macquarie, stretching from the Hawkesbury to the Blue Mountains in New South Wales, finds itself under a careful national gaze once more. Though Labor enters the 2025 election with a buffer of 6.3% after the most recent redistribution, the seat’s shifting local dynamics and evolving campaign strategies suggest a race that remains competitive.
The shape of Macquarie tells a quiet story about contemporary Australia—part foothills, part floodplain, where outer-metropolitan growth meets semi-rural steadiness. Around the Hawkesbury, population growth has picked up pace, but it hasn’t redrawn the cultural outlines of the seat. Most households are still Australian-born, English-speaking, and heavily invested—literally—in home ownership. Public sector workers, tradies, and small business owners make up a solid core of the local workforce. While parts of western Sydney have seen sharp demographic shifts in recent years, including a marked rise in Indian-Australian communities, Macquarie has moved more slowly, changing at the edges rather than the centre.
Susan Templeman, the Labor incumbent, is seeking another term after first winning the seat in 2016. Templeman, a former journalist and small business owner, has weathered swings and redistributions, gradually increasing her margin with each election. She enters the contest with the advantage of incumbency, a visible community profile, and a focus on recovery and resilience policies shaped by her work during and after the 2019–20 bushfires.
Her principal challenger is Liberal candidate Mike Creed, a councillor in the Hawkesbury and a former café owner. Creed’s campaign has focused on core issues such as road infrastructure, flood mitigation, and the cost of living. While less experienced on the federal stage, he has a local base of support, particularly in the northern end of the electorate, where concerns about overdevelopment and transport links remain unresolved.
Joining the contest are four minor party candidates. Terry Morgan is standing for the Greens, with environmental sustainability and housing affordability at the centre of his campaign. Matthew Jacobson represents Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, advocating for stricter migration controls and regional development. Joaquim Eduardo de Lima is the candidate for the Libertarian Party, promoting deregulation and personal freedoms. Roger Gerard Bowen represents Family First, campaigning on conservative social values and family support policies.
The 2022 election saw Templeman secure 43.6% of the primary vote, ahead of the Liberal candidate on 37.8%. After preferences, Labor reached 53.1% on a two-party preferred basis. While redistribution helped to bolster Labor’s standing, historical results show that Macquarie has swung frequently between the two major parties over the past two decades, and the electorate remains sensitive to local shifts in mood.
Voting data from the previous election paints a picture of engaged constituents. The turnout in 2022 was 93.4%, comfortably above the national average. Informal votes accounted for 5.07%, in line with national trends. These figures suggest a politically attentive electorate, with relatively low levels of voting error or disengagement. Marginal swings have long defined the contest here—single-digit shifts often decide the result, and preference flows can prove critical in a field this broad.
Campaign activity across the electorate has been notable for its local focus. Templeman has maintained a strong physical presence at community markets, recovery events, and local schools, using her record in office as a platform. Creed’s campaign has prioritised targeted door knocking and community meetings, especially around Richmond and Windsor, where demand for improved public infrastructure and local hospital support has gained traction. The campaigns of minor party candidates have been less visible in physical spaces but more active on digital platforms, particularly among niche interest groups.
Social media sentiment in the seat reflects an electorate divided by geography and priority. Voters in the Blue Mountains continue to centre environmental concerns in their political conversations, driven by proximity to bushfire-prone areas and protected lands. Further east in the Hawkesbury, posts are dominated by discussion of development approvals, flood recovery funds, and transport bottlenecks. The North Richmond bridge congestion issue is again featuring prominently in digital town-hall conversations, as is dissatisfaction with housing affordability and rising insurance premiums.
Local media coverage mirrors this divide. The Blue Mountains Gazette has featured a series of community commentaries on land preservation and climate strategy, while the Hawkesbury Gazette has focused more on hospital waiting times, regional road safety, and planning reform. Both publications have reported rising community concern around affordability pressures, particularly in light of national interest rate movements and their impact on mortgage stress across working-class households.
While major party policies on health, climate, and infrastructure are being closely scrutinised, the electorate’s decision may ultimately be shaped by the sense of who is most accessible and attuned to the region’s evolving demands. Templeman’s edge lies in her familiarity with the local crisis response machinery and her longstanding advocacy around recovery services. Creed, meanwhile, is betting on voter fatigue and a belief that infrastructure concerns have gone unanswered.
Minor parties are unlikely to unseat either major candidate, but their presence could shape preference distributions. The Greens traditionally direct preferences to Labor, though their reach in Macquarie remains modest. One Nation and Family First voters are more likely to preference the Liberal Party, but not uniformly. The Libertarian candidate, while unlikely to attract a large primary vote, could influence second preference dynamics in an electorate where the margin remains just outside marginal territory.
As the election date draws closer, Macquarie stands as a snapshot of broader currents in Australian politics: a semi-rural seat balancing environmental fragility with suburban expansion, traditional voter bases with emerging concerns, and a competitive field where outcomes are never easily forecast. It is precisely this blend of predictability and volatility that makes Macquarie one to watch.
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