The red lanterns of Box Hill shimmered with political theatre this year. Both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader turned up for Lunar New Year, dodging dumpling queues and camera crews in what has become a new ritual for politicians courting marginal seats. That Peter Dutton was among them—wearing festive red and promising $250,000 for future celebrations—spoke volumes. This was not the Menzies of old.
Once a blue-ribbon Liberal seat named after the party’s founder, the electorate of Menzies has become something else entirely. Since its creation in 1984, it has returned a Liberal MP every single time. It was a quiet seat, rarely featured in national coverage, until a 2023 redistribution shuffled the suburbs and the arithmetic. Thirty-two thousand new voters from areas like Box Hill, Blackburn, and Surrey Hills have redrawn the contest. (Parts of Box Hill now sit across two electorates—Chisholm and Menzies—adding complexity to both races.) The result: a 0.7% Liberal margin flipped into a notional 0.4% Labor lead. Menzies is now, on paper, a Labor seat for the first time.
This statistical shift has turned the race into a genuine toss-up. Incumbent Liberal MP Keith Wolahan, a former special forces soldier and barrister, is now in the uncomfortable position of defending terrain his party no longer fully recognises. He won the seat narrowly in 2022, weathering an 8.8% swing against him on primary votes. It took postal votes to tip him over the line. That narrow escape was before the new boundaries. This time, he’s running uphill.
Drive through Menzies and the difficulty is evident. From the leafy cul-de-sacs of Donvale and Templestowe to the high-density towers of Box Hill, the seat spans two electoral universes. One speaks in English about franking credits and negative gearing. The other may speak Mandarin, Cantonese, or Greek at home, and votes less out of ideological loyalty than lived experience.
More than 50% of Menzies residents speak a language other than English. One in four is of Chinese heritage, making it the electorate with the highest concentration of Chinese-Australians in the country. In Box Hill, nearly 30% of residents were born in China. In this context, election campaigns resemble multilingual courtships. Wolahan, no stranger to a tactical shift, has embraced the local Chinese-language platform Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book), where he shares videos and messages in an attempt to build trust and familiarity with voters who may have little historical link to the Liberal Party.
This is not just about symbolism. After the electoral bruising the Liberals took in 2022 in seats with large Chinese communities, party strategists know better than to repeat past mistakes. Gone is the Cold War rhetoric. In its place: community grants, cultural attendance, and localised engagement. Wolahan has adapted well, but the party brand remains bruised.
His principal opponent, Labor’s Gabriel Ng, could hardly be more different. A local lawyer, young father, and first-time candidate, Ng reflects the electorate’s changing face. He grew up in Doncaster, still lives locally, and speaks directly to cost-of-living issues with the polished reassurance of someone who knows the price of groceries because he bought them yesterday. His campaign focuses on Medicare expansion, cheaper medicines, and school funding. Labor is betting that this bread-and-butter agenda will resonate with new migrants, renters, and younger families.
Ng’s challenge is to convert demographic trends into votes. Labor has never won Menzies before, and historical inertia runs deep. But they are throwing resources at the seat like never before. Pledges for a $25 million road upgrade in Warrandyte and millions more for local sports facilities in Box Hill are attempts to localise a national pitch. In a contest where infrastructure neglect is a running complaint—particularly the long-promised but still missing Doncaster train station—every pothole patched may carry electoral weight.
Yet this is no straight duel. Independent Stella Yee, former publisher of Manningham Life, is running as a community-centred alternative. She is pitching herself as a practical outsider with policy seriousness. Her campaign speaks to cost-of-living anxiety, tax reform, climate investment, and public housing—not slogans, but a laundry list of things she claims major parties have ignored. Her presence could siphon moderate voters from both sides. Her message is direct: break the habit. Vote local, vote independent.
The Greens, represented by Warrandyte’s Bill Pheasant, are targeting environmentally minded voters, particularly in high-density precincts like Blackburn and Box Hill. Pheasant’s message merges housing and climate: freeze rents, end new coal and gas, and channel corporate tax revenue into affordable homes and expanded Medicare services. The Greens scored 14% of the primary vote in Menzies last time. They are unlikely to win, but their preferences could decide who does.
Minor parties round out the ballot. Libertarian Joshua Utoyo wants to halve the tax burden and abolish fuel excise. Ann Seeley from Family First promises to uphold faith, family, and coal. Amanda Paliouras, a former unionist turned Liberal turned dissident, campaigns under the curious banner of Trumpet of Patriots. Each has a lane—none is expected to win—but in a seat where the final margin could be under 1%, even niche players can act as spoilers.
What binds them is a shared theme: dissatisfaction. When a seat attracts eight candidates, stretching from libertarian fringe to progressive idealism, something is bubbling. Voters are browsing, comparing, hedging. No one is quite sold.
That’s why preferences matter. Australia’s ranked voting system means victory often goes not to the most popular candidate on first count, but the one who can build the widest coalition of second and third choices. In 2022, Wolahan had 42% of the primary vote and just crossed 50.7% after preferences. The maths is even trickier this time. Greens voters will mostly preference Labor. Family First and One Nation voters will likely fall Liberal. The wild cards are independents like Yee or minor parties like Utoyo and Paliouras, whose votes could flow anywhere—or exhaust.
Early voting trends and postal votes will again play a decisive role. In Menzies, a high proportion of the electorate votes before election day. Campaigns have already front-loaded their efforts. Every supermarket stall and apartment leaflet is being delivered now, not later. Momentum is measured not in rallies, but in click-throughs and booth rosters.
At its heart, Menzies is no longer a cultural monolith. Long-time residents remember when Kevin Andrews held the seat unchallenged for decades, talking about values and volunteerism. Now, many of those voters have been redistributed elsewhere. What remains is a more pragmatic electorate, open to persuasion, wary of rhetoric, and attuned to practical results.
The suburbs of Melbourne’s east have changed. And with them, the political logic of once-safe seats like Menzies. This is not a heartland anymore. It’s a swing district with fast Wi-Fi, crowded buses, and conversations in many tongues. If there’s one constant, it’s that old certainties are gone. What remains is a contest decided not by ideology, but by persuasion, preference, and quiet second thoughts.
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