The rise of Donald Trump in the United States, the growing traction of nationalist parties in Europe—from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France to the Alternative for Germany (AfD)—and the election of a hard-right coalition in the Netherlands all point to a larger trend: the political centre is retreating, and cultural anxieties are filling the space. Ireland, long viewed as welcoming, recently saw thousands protesting against asylum centres. Even Canada, once the gold standard for immigrant-friendly policy, is under pressure from a housing crisis now blamed, in part, on rapid immigration.
It’s no longer just rhetoric. In the US, the H-1B visa program is under fresh scrutiny again. The number of eligible applications has dropped sharply, and the approval process is growing more complex. While denial rates have eased compared to the Trump era, the climate feels anything but stable—particularly for Indian tech professionals, who have historically dominated the program. Some firms, particularly large Indian IT companies, have shifted hiring strategies to increase their onshore workforce in the US, a move aimed at reducing reliance on uncertain visa approvals. The message to skilled migrants remains mixed: you’re welcome, but only under shifting and unpredictable terms.
Australia has largely avoided the populist surge seen elsewhere. But that doesn’t mean the sentiment isn’t bubbling below the surface. On social media platforms like X, anti-immigration threads often single out Indian migrants, using terms like “visa rackets” or “rorting the system” with little context and even less evidence. Whether the topic is housing stress or university standards, the blame is frequently directed at international students and recent arrivals—many of whom are Indian. The tone may be niche, but the reach is wide. One viral post or clip is often enough to shift the broader mood, far beyond the fringes of the internet.
This backdrop matters, especially in an election year. Both Labor and the Coalition will talk up multiculturalism in speeches and manifestos. But for many Indian Australians, the real test isn’t what’s said at Harmony Week events—it’s whether policy holds up when it’s least convenient. That includes funding for local organisations, measures that tackle racism without masking it under generic “community cohesion,” and representation that extends beyond photo ops into decision-making roles across departments. The idea that multiculturalism is a passive by-product of immigration is long gone. What’s expected now is active support—especially when it’s politically costly.
And this is where the political class is under closer watch than before.
Former Prime Minister John Howard brought multiculturalism back into national debate with remarks that felt like a throwback. In a November 2023 interview, he said, “Multiculturalism is a concept that I’ve always had trouble with. I take the view that if people want to emigrate to a country, then they adopt the values and practices of that country.” It’s a stance that jars with the lived experience of many Indian Australians—who have flown in both worlds, valuing their heritage while deeply contributing to their adopted home.
Howard’s comments may appeal to older voters nostalgic for a narrower version of national identity. But for younger generations, particularly in migrant communities, they feel increasingly disconnected.
Peter Dutton, by contrast, has taken a more deliberate approach with the Indian Australian community. The current Opposition Leader has travelled to India, participated in community events, and engaged with Indian-origin business leaders. These efforts have been noted within the community. While his broader rhetoric on immigration and national security has drawn criticism, there’s been little concern directed at his outreach to Indians. If anything, many view it as a rare instance of consistency in a political landscape that often speaks in contradictions.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also maintained strong visibility with Indian Australians. The 2019 Australian Election Study showed that 56% of Indian-born voters supported Labor, compared to 28% for the Coalition. Since then, Albanese has taken part in key cultural events, including Holi celebrations at the BAPS Swaminarayan temple, and consistently reaffirmed Labor’s multicultural stance. But with a federal election set for May, the mood is shifting slightly. The fast-tracking of citizenship ceremonies in key marginal seats and growing concern from Hindu leaders about religious intolerance have introduced new tensions. Labor still enjoys goodwill, but the voting pattern isn’t set in stone.
Then there’s Pauline Hanson. The One Nation leader has made a name opposing immigration, but in recent years has tempered her tone towards Indians. In a 2017 interview, she said, “I am not anti-migrant at all… I have no problems with Indian migrants as they work hard and have given a lot to this country.” That line has done just enough to avoid alienating Indian voters. Lately, she’s avoided direct attacks on the community, choosing instead to focus on national identity and border control. But if One Nation wins more seats, her voice will again shape the public debate, and the space for pluralism will be up for negotiation.
Voters of Indian heritage have traditionally leaned left, with Labor viewed as the default choice. But in recent years, the Liberal Party has worked hard to open new inroads—through sustained community engagement, visible candidate selection, and symbolic gestures in seats where they’ve had little chance of winning. That effort points to an appetite, however small, for Coalition politics within the community.
What makes this election especially interesting is the global context. The rise of Trump-style politics has softened the momentum of that emerging relationship. Familiar cues don’t hold. The usual assumptions no longer apply. As the campaign heats up in the weeks ahead, it won’t just be about policies—it’ll come down to tone, memory, and whether the outreach feels real.
The pulse of the Indian Australian vote? This time, no one should bet on muscle memory.
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