A recent report from the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) has revealed that small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) might not become a mature technology until the late 2040s. The report highlights the current lack of reliable, publicly verifiable information on operational full-scale prototype SMRs globally.
As coal-fired power stations retire and there’s an increasing need for low-carbon technologies, the report warns that SMRs will not fill this gap within the next decade due to the time required to establish a mature market and necessary regulatory frameworks.
ATSE suggests that the least risky option for Australia would be to procure SMRs after they have been successfully implemented and operational in other OECD countries. However, entering the SMR market prematurely would entail significant financial costs and technical risks.
For a nuclear energy industry to be feasible in Australia, several conditions must be met. Federal and state moratoria on nuclear power need to be lifted, a national nuclear regulator established, and an appropriately skilled workforce developed. Additionally, broad social acceptance of the technology is crucial for its success over its entire life cycle.
Dr Katherine Woodthorpe AO FTSE, President of ATSE, stated that while SMRs could be part of Australia’s future energy mix from a technology and engineering standpoint, this is unlikely to happen until the mid to late 2040s. Dr Woodthorpe emphasized that despite the potential for SMRs to provide low-carbon energy compatible with Australia’s electricity system, there are considerable uncertainties regarding their commercial viability.
The report also notes the high-risk nature of sourcing a prototype SMR, citing technical and commercial challenges. Dr Woodthorpe called for non-partisan analysis to objectively assess technology readiness and the role of nuclear technology in the long term. However, she stressed that this should not detract from the rapid deployment of renewable technologies that are already available and viable.
ATSE supports a technology-neutral approach to the energy transition, advocating for all options to be considered on their merits.
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