Last February, Australia faced its worst floods in its entire history causing widespread destruction and impacting communities profoundly. The floods in northern rivers in New South Wales were the largest natural disaster in Australia since 1974’s Cyclone Tracy. They were so costly that in 2022, they became the second-most expensive event for insurers worldwide and the priciest disaster ever in Australia.
Amidst the aftermath, Dr Jai Vaze, a hydrologist born in Nagpur, found himself at the forefront of a career-defining moment. While he has always been engaged in large-scale water assessments and flood modelling, the northern river floods provided him with the opportunity to lead one of the country’s most crucial projects.
“Consequently, we are entrusted with the majority of key flood projects, including the one currently underway for Lismore, addressing the aftermath of massive floods. This project holds a high priority and has been assigned to me due to its substantial impact and importance,” says Vaze, who at Australia’s national science agency CSIRO, specialises in the study of water, particularly its distribution, movement, and properties in natural and man-made environments.
Based in Canberra, Vaze is currently heading the $11.4 million Northern Rivers Resilience Initiative to help the Australian Government understand the drivers behind the unprecedented flood events in February-March 2022 in NSW and develop community-supported solutions for flood mitigation and resilience investment.
The project involves two main phases, explains Vaze. “The first, from July to November 2022, has concluded, focusing on understanding the floods across the entire northern rivers’ region, particularly in Lismore and surrounding areas.
“We analysed data from various sources, including the bureau, state government, satellite imagery, and measurements, producing a detailed report available on the National Emergency management Agency (NEMA) website. This report provides a clear picture of the variability and severity of the floods across the northern rivers region.
“In the second part of phase one, we assessed existing flood resilience and mitigation projects proposed by local government areas (LGAs), the state government and community. Data collection involved collaborating with councils and conducting two rounds of community engagements across the seven councils.”
These sessions, held over 15-20 days, allowed community members to contribute their proposals. The federal government provided guiding principles for an objective assessment. This work identified and prioritised existing flood resilience/mitigation project proposals and analysed the most effective intervention options for allocation of the Australian Government’s $150 million of funding.
In second phase, Vaze and his team is collecting and generating high resolution and high accuracy Light Detection and Ranging—LiDAR (a digital representation of the bare-earth’s topographic surface) and river bathymetry (continuous river cross sections) for the Richmond and Tweed rivers and their main tributaries.
This high-quality data will be used to underpin a detailed hydrodynamic model for the Richmond River catchment. The model will be used for examining and evaluating possible future events and scenarios and predict their outcomes while drawing on local knowledge and expertise on the catchment and flooding.
“Once we successfully replicate historical events, we aim to deliver a fully calibrated model by June 2025. Subsequently, we will initiate testing various flood mitigation scenarios spanning from July 2025 to June 2026.
“Our focus will be on devising strategies to safeguard different townships. Considering the flow-on effect, protecting an area upstream may inadvertently pose threats downstream, a factor we carefully account for in our simulations.”
For Vaze, the primary challenge lies in the absence of a consistent data set across the vast Australian continent. Given the country’s size and the fact that not every area experience floods, the existing modelling is fragmented.
Currently, data collection and modelling efforts are concentrated in flood-prone regions. One would expect a country like Australia to have a comprehensive inventory, including a thorough study of available data, historical flood patterns spanning a century, and an assessment of the quality and reliability of existing models.
A critical observation that emerges from Vaze’s experience is that approximately 95 per cent of Australia’s landmass doesn’t face significant flood threats. Yet, the nation allocates a disproportionate amount, around 97 per cent of its funds to post-incident recovery (as per published statistics). Only a mere three per cent is dedicated to proactive mitigation measures. Ideally, this allocation should be more balanced, with a substantial portion, perhaps 50-70 per cent, directed towards preventive measures.
This shift in focus could potentially transform the nation’s approach to handling flood-related challenges, emphasising resilience and proactive strategies over reactive responses, believes Vaze.
Born in Nagpur, Vaze pursued civil engineering at Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology Nagpur (VNIT), formerly known as Visvesvaraya Regional College of Engineering (VRCE). A recipient of a prestigious EU scholarship, only granted to three individuals from India in a year, he undertook his Master’s degree in Ireland at a time when environmental engineering was encompassed within civil engineering.
Achieving the status of a gold medallist, Vaze had the privilege of learning from J. E. (Eamonn) Nash, recognised as the father of hydrology, during his Master’s program. Subsequently, he secured a full scholarship for a PhD and chose Australia over other options due to its milder climate compared to Ireland.
The PhD journey unfolded at the University of Melbourne, specialising in environmental engineering from 1997 to 2000. Post-doctoral pursuits led them to a decade-long collaboration with the New South Wales government, followed by a transition to CSIRO 15 years ago, where he has continued to contribute to the field of hydrology.
For all his work, Vaze, has received numerous accolades in his field. In July 2023, he earned the prestigious Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Biennial Medal, the Society’s highest scientific honour.
His impactful contributions extend to the Australian Water Association, where he has received three Research Innovation Awards. Within CSIRO, he has been consistently recognised, securing multiple annual awards, including the esteemed Chair’s Medal, a distinction he has earned twice.
Vaze has also supervised several PhD students. “I tell them to be happy with what they have rather than focusing on what they don’t have, and success does not come without hard work,” he says.
In the face of Australia’s worst floods in history, Vaze emerges not only as a distinguished hydrologist but as a proactive advocate for reshaping the nation’s approach to flood-related challenges.
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