Tony Burke will finally unveil Labor’s long-delayed migration overhaul on Thursday, more than six weeks after abruptly cancelling his first National Press Club appearance, but the government’s strongest measures to curb visa hopping and questionable asylum claims appear unlikely to be part of the immediate package.
The Home Affairs Minister’s speech, titled “The work of managing the migration program: who arrives, who stays, who leaves”, will focus on how Labor intends to bring net overseas migration down towards the levels already written into the federal budget rather than announce another headline cut.
SBS confirmed Burke will appear at the National Press Club on Thursday, with the minister saying he had sought Coalition support for additional powers but had so far failed to secure it. “I had hoped that the Opposition would work constructively to make sure the immigration minister of the day had additional powers to be able to regulate net overseas migration,” Burke said. “At the moment, they haven’t agreed to measures which they claim to support.”
That leaves Burke with a more limited set of changes that can be made through regulation, ministerial direction and administration without legislation passing Parliament.
According to reporting by The Age, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had approached Opposition Leader Angus Taylor about measures including preventing people from lodging asylum claims after spending several months in Australia and restricting some international students’ ability to use appeals to prolong their stay.
Those measures have effectively been placed on hold without Coalition support, although Labor hopes they could be revived later.
The distinction is important because the political argument over migration has moved rapidly since Burke cancelled his original speech in August.
One Nation has since unveiled a plan to reduce the temporary migrant population by more than 750,000 over three years, cut international student numbers, severely restrict dependants and push net overseas migration temporarily into negative territory.
The Coalition has promised lower migration tied more closely to housing construction but is still developing its full policy.
Labor, by contrast, is attempting to reach the migration numbers Treasury has already forecast rather than dramatically revise them.
The May budget forecasts net overseas migration of 295,000 in 2025-26, falling to 245,000 in 2026-27 and 225,000 from 2027-28.
The latest published ABS population figures show net overseas migration running at 301,000 in the year to December 2025, well below the post-pandemic peak but still above the government’s longer-term target.
Burke’s speech will come on the same morning the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its March-quarter population figures, including an updated net overseas migration number. That timing means the minister could be defending the government’s migration strategy within hours of receiving the newest official measure of how quickly migration is actually falling.
The Albanese Govt is considering changes to the Administrative Review Tribunal to clear migration appeal backlogs faster, potentially reducing how long unsuccessful applicants remain in Australia while cases are reviewed
The package is expected to focus heavily on temporary migration rather than the permanent program.
Previous reporting has pointed to measures aimed at reducing the number of people moving from one temporary visa to another, tightening some international student and family arrangements, cutting the large bridging visa population and reducing the number of people remaining in Australia after exhausting their legal pathways. The government has also been examining stronger management of working holiday visas.
Burke has already begun changing the system before Thursday’s speech.
Visa application charges rose sharply from July 1, while ministerial directions have given greater priority to some onshore skilled and family applicants over offshore applicants. Earlier student visa changes have also slowed arrivals.
The challenge now is departures.
Australia’s migration debate has traditionally concentrated on how many people are permitted to enter. The emerging policy fight is increasingly about how long temporary residents remain, how easily they can move between visa categories and what happens when a visa expires.
That is why bridging visas, asylum appeals and temporary graduate visas have become so politically important.
The government is also considering changes to the Administrative Review Tribunal intended to reduce the backlog of migration appeals, according to The Age. A faster tribunal could reduce the amount of time unsuccessful applicants remain in Australia while cases move through the system.
But restricting appeal rights is precisely where Labor begins needing Parliament.
The Greens have criticised the government’s approach as an attempt to respond to the electoral rise of Pauline Hanson, while parts of the Coalition remain wary of giving Labor bipartisan cover on migration at the same time One Nation is attacking both major parties for allowing numbers to remain too high. The Guardian reported on Wednesday that the Greens were accusing Labor of being “scared of Pauline Hanson” as Burke prepared the package.
Independent senator David Pocock has urged a different approach altogether, arguing Australia needs a long-term population and skills plan rather than another political fight over a single number.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry has warned against arbitrary migration targets that could worsen skills shortages
Pocock said the debate should begin with the skills Australia needs, the capacity of housing and infrastructure and the consequences for industries such as aged care, health and agriculture, before a migration number is selected.
Business is making a similar argument.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry has warned against arbitrary migration targets that could worsen skills shortages, while horticulture and tourism employers are seeking faster working holiday visa processing ahead of summer.
That leaves Labor trying to occupy an increasingly narrow position.
It must demonstrate to voters concerned about housing and infrastructure that migration is coming down, without cutting so deeply that hospitals, aged care, farms, universities and construction lose workers they cannot readily replace.
It must also convince voters that existing rules are being enforced, without adopting the mass-removal approach proposed by One Nation.
And it needs some Coalition support if it wants to close the asylum and appeals pathways it considers most open to abuse.
The politics helps explain why Burke’s first speech was postponed.
The ABC reported in August that the initial package had included tougher family visa rules, restrictions on working holiday makers and limits on the work and appeal rights of some asylum applicants, with elements of the plan generating extensive internal debate. Burke’s office said at the time that some details were simply not ready.
Thursday will show how much survived that process.
It will also reveal whether Labor can regain control of a migration debate it has spent much of the past two months reacting to.
One Nation has now given voters an easily understood number: 750,000 fewer temporary migrants over three years.
Labor’s approach is more complicated. Rather than promise a dramatic purge, it is trying to alter the machinery of the visa system so fewer people arrive, fewer remain indefinitely on temporary status and more leave when their lawful stay ends.
That may prove easier to administer than One Nation’s proposal.
Politically, however, it is much harder to explain.
And with the strongest elements currently stranded in Parliament, Burke’s long-awaited speech may reveal as much about what Labor cannot yet do as what it intends to change.
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