Hanson raises the stakes with 750,000 migration cut as Labor tightens the screws

Pauline Hanson has dramatically raised the stakes in Australia’s migration debate, promising to reduce the number of temporary visa holders and unlawful non-citizens by more than 750,000 over three years and drive net overseas migration into negative territory before imposing a permanent ceiling of 130,000 a year.

The announcement is One Nation’s most detailed attempt yet to put numbers around a policy that has become its strongest political weapon. It also comes at an awkward moment for the party because Labor is already moving migration sharply lower, while One Nation has spent the past month trying to clean up confusion over what its own 130,000 figure actually meant.

Hanson said Australians had “had enough of mass migration” and linked the policy directly to housing, hospitals and living standards.

“I know Australians are doing it tough. Families are competing with hundreds of people for rental accommodation. Patients are stuck in ambulances because there are not enough hospital beds. Young Australians are being locked out of home ownership while wages and infrastructure fail to keep up,” she said.

Her plan would return the temporary migrant population to around 2017 levels and the international student population to 2015 levels. One Nation would retain employer-driven temporary skilled migration, the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme and working holiday visas, while cutting student, graduate, secondary and other temporary visa categories more aggressively. Unlawful migrants would be given three months to leave before enforcement action and a lifetime re-entry ban.

The headline number is enormous. There were about 2.9 million temporary visa holders in Australia at the end of July, although that figure requires care. It includes more than 736,000 New Zealand citizens as well as students, workers, visitors and other temporary entrants, and not everyone holding a temporary visa is counted as a migrant under the Australian Bureau of Statistics definition of net overseas migration.

That distinction matters. Cutting the temporary visa stock by 750,000 is not automatically the same thing as reducing net overseas migration by 750,000. Some visa holders leave, some become permanent residents, some are visitors who never enter the population count, and others are replaced by new arrivals.

One Nation says its plan would nevertheless push NOM below zero during the three-year reset.

That would represent a much sharper demographic reversal than anything Labor is proposing.

But the political context is changing rapidly.

Labor has already cut migration considerably from the extraordinary post-pandemic peak. Net overseas migration reached about 556,000 before falling to 301,000 in the year to December 2025. Treasury now forecasts 245,000 in 2026-27 and 225,000 annually from 2027-28

Labor has already cut migration considerably from the extraordinary post-pandemic peak. Net overseas migration reached about 556,000 before falling to 301,000 in the year to December 2025. Treasury now forecasts 245,000 in 2026-27 and 225,000 annually from 2027-28.

International education is already contracting. Department of Education figures show 680,582 international students studied in Australia in the first five months of 2026, down 6.9 per cent on the same period last year, while new student numbers fell 6 per cent. Earlier government figures showed student visa applications had fallen 26 per cent as Canberra tightened settings.

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke is also preparing further measures aimed at temporary visas, overstayers and departures as the government tries to reach the 225,000 figure.

Reports of internal disagreement have surrounded the delayed package. Trade Minister Don Farrell rejected suggestions that Burke and Treasurer Jim Chalmers were “having a blue”, saying “absolutely no” when asked if the ministers were at odds. He acknowledged, however, that “migration is important in terms of the economy of this country, so it wouldn’t be unusual for the Treasurer to have views about what we should be doing in terms of migration”.

Farrell said he saw “no evidence that the government is divided on any of these issues”, while Labor has maintained it intends to reach the budget trajectory rather than invent another headline target.

A YouGov poll conducted from September 1 to 8 put One Nation on 30 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of Labor on 26 per cent and the Coalition on 18 per cent. Roy Morgan, using different methodology, had Labor on 27 per cent and One Nation almost level on 26.5 per cent

That leaves One Nation with an increasingly interesting political problem.

The party has surged precisely because voters believe the major parties have lost control of migration. A YouGov poll conducted from September 1 to 8 put One Nation on 30 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of Labor on 26 per cent and the Coalition on 18 per cent. Roy Morgan, using different methodology, had Labor on 27 per cent and One Nation almost level on 26.5 per cent.

Yet even the YouGov result had Labor leading One Nation 53-47 in a hypothetical two-party contest, a reminder that a national primary vote does not translate neatly into government under Australia’s preferential voting system.

The 750,000 announcement therefore looks both offensive and defensive.

It allows Hanson to reopen distance between One Nation and Labor after her own MP David Farley conceded last month that One Nation’s effective migration intake could be “not too different” from Labor once regional workers, aged-care staff and other skilled migrants were included. Farley estimated at least another 100,000 workers on top of the party’s 130,000 figure before Hanson publicly corrected him.

Today’s policy answers some of that confusion by identifying where the cuts would fall.

It also exposes the economic trade-offs.

Hanson said “a larger economy on paper means nothing if Australians are poorer per person”, a point with genuine force after years in which population growth supported headline GDP while household living standards came under pressure.

But Australia’s property, education and labour markets have also become deeply entangled with migration.

Housing is already cooling. The Reserve Bank said average dwelling prices were 1.6 per cent below their March peak by August, with Sydney and Melbourne recording the largest falls and auction clearance rates below long-term averages. This weekend’s preliminary capital-city clearance rate improved to 58.5 per cent, the strongest in 19 weeks, but auction volumes remain more than 30 per cent below a year ago.

That is softening, not yet a property glut.

But a 750,000 reduction in the temporary population would remove a large amount of rental and household demand if most of those people actually left the country.

That creates another tension for One Nation. The Reserve Bank estimates about 3.3 million Australians own investment property, roughly 10 per cent of the working-age population. One Nation has simultaneously promised to preserve negative gearing on up to two investment properties per person.

Lower migration could help renters and first-home buyers by easing demand. A sharp enough fall in rents and prices could also hit the very property investors One Nation is promising to protect.

The university equation is even more immediate.

International education generated almost $55 billion in export income in 2025, including $40.8 billion associated with higher education. Universities also funded more than half their research internally in 2023, often relying on international student revenues to cross-subsidise that work.

Hanson says universities would still be able to enrol more than 100,000 international students a year, with priority for institutions providing accommodation and for high-value postgraduate research students.

That is a more developed position than simply saying international student numbers should fall. But returning the sector towards 2015 levels would still represent a large structural adjustment for universities, city economies and research funding.

Hanson points to Canada as evidence that migration can be cut without economic disaster.

Canada has indeed reduced temporary migration sharply. New temporary worker and student arrivals fell 53 per cent in 2025, and its non-permanent resident population has started falling. Rental markets have eased as supply increased and population growth slowed.

High migration can overwhelm housing and infrastructure. Very low migration can weaken labour supply, consumption and economic growth. Governments have to choose a level and composition they can sustain

But the Canadian experience is not cost-free. Canada’s population actually declined 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year, while the Bank of Canada said GDP was no higher than a year earlier and identified slower population growth as one reason economic potential had weakened.

The lesson is less convenient than either side would prefer.

High migration can overwhelm housing and infrastructure. Very low migration can weaken labour supply, consumption and economic growth. Governments have to choose a level and composition they can sustain.

Victoria’s November election will provide an early test of how durable One Nation’s appeal has become. Recent polling has put the party near 24 per cent statewide, close enough to disrupt both Labor and the Coalition and potentially reshape the upper house.

Migration itself is a federal responsibility, but the Victorian campaign will show whether voters still reward the hardest line once migration is visibly falling and the economic consequences of those cuts become harder to ignore.

For Labor, the challenge is to convince voters it can reach 225,000 without damaging industries that still need workers.

For One Nation, the challenge has changed.

It is no longer enough to demand that migration be cut.

With Labor already cutting it, Hanson now has to prove that 750,000 fewer temporary residents can be removed without creating another set of problems Australia will eventually have to solve.