Six of Australia’s 10 hottest local government areas are in Greater Adelaide, even as a new housing market index points to a sharp cooling in sales momentum across much of the country.
Hotspotting’s June quarter Price Predictor Index found the proportion of markets classified as “positive” fell from 52.1 per cent in March to 43.3 per cent in June, while the number of markets classified as declining rose from 132 to 482, an increase of 265 per cent.
The result marks a change from the conditions seen earlier this year, although the data also shows large differences between cities, regional areas and individual local government areas.
Onkaparinga in South Australia recorded the highest score on Hotspotting’s new market pressure measure, at 77 out of 100, followed by Mitcham on 76 and Palmerston in the Northern Territory on 74. Marion scored 73, while Bayswater in Western Australia and Tea Tree Gully in South Australia each recorded 72.
Campbelltown, Port Adelaide Enfield, Glenorchy and Kingborough completed the top 10, giving Greater Adelaide six places on the national list.
Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder attributed Adelaide’s performance to limited housing stock and strong competition among buyers.
“When stock clears quickly, the live-market pressure becomes extreme. Inventory thins, days on market collapse, properties sell above asking, and vacancy disappears,” Mr Ryder said.
“When stock clears quickly, the live-market pressure becomes extreme. Inventory thins, days on market collapse, properties sell above asking, and vacancy disappears”
The ranking is based on Hotspotting’s proprietary “Thermometer”, which scores markets from zero to 100 using inventory levels, the proportion of properties selling above asking price, vacancy rates, days on market and short-term price momentum. It sits alongside a separate classification based on eight quarters of sales-volume trends.
That distinction produces some apparently conflicting results. Greater Adelaide had one of the country’s highest average Thermometer readings, at 69, despite only 39.1 per cent of its markets being classified as positive under the sales-volume measure. Greater Darwin recorded the highest Thermometer score at 71.
Hotspotting managing director Tim Graham said rapidly changing economic conditions were affecting markets differently.
“This quarter lands in the middle of what we call ‘the mother of all disruption periods’,” Mr Graham said.
“Three RBA rate rises, geopolitical trade uncertainty, cost-of-living pressures and Federal Budget changes have all hit at once, but the impact isn’t uniform.
“Some markets are cooling sharply, while others are still running incredibly hot with our new Thermometer methodology making those differences visible in real time.”
The index showed one of the clearest changes in Perth, which had been among Australia’s strongest housing markets during the post-pandemic upswing.
Only 23.4 per cent of Greater Perth’s 278 markets were classified as positive in June, the lowest share of any jurisdiction measured in the report. Some 118 Perth markets, or 42.4 per cent, were classified as declining. Its Thermometer score remained at 63, within Hotspotting’s “warm” range, suggesting properties were still selling at a reasonable pace even as the sales-volume trend weakened.
Mr Ryder said the figures pointed to a change in the cycle rather than a collapse.
“Listings in Perth are still finding buyers at a reasonable pace,” he said.
“What’s changed is the underlying demand trend. The volume signal has rolled over, so, we’re witnessing the cooling in real time.
“But it’s not a crisis. Instead, it’s a normal cycle turn happening faster than usual because disruption is hitting buyer sentiment.”
Sydney and Melbourne recorded a different pattern. The index classified 49.1 per cent of Greater Melbourne markets and 47.3 per cent of Greater Sydney markets as positive, both above the national figure of 43.3 per cent. Their average Thermometer scores were 50 and 52 respectively, placing both in Hotspotting’s neutral range.
“These are the two largest transaction markets in Australia,” Mr Graham said.
“They retain the broadest base of positive markets at scale, and their resilience is a reminder that price headlines often miss what’s happening underneath.”
Regional South Australia was the strongest mainland regional jurisdiction under the index’s positive-market measure, with 49.1 per cent of its 57 markets classified as positive. Hotspotting identified the Barossa, Clare Valley and Riverland districts as contributing to the result.
“Regional SA is the unsung hero of the June quarter,” Mr Ryder said.
“It’s consistent, it’s stable, and it’s outperforming every other mainland regional jurisdiction.”
Victoria’s regional markets were considerably weaker. Only 36.7 per cent of markets outside Greater Melbourne were classified as positive, compared with Melbourne’s 49.1 per cent. East Gippsland and Surf Coast were among the three lowest-ranked LGAs nationally on Hotspotting’s Thermometer, scoring 20 and 21 respectively. Wingecarribee in NSW recorded the lowest score at 18.
The report also found the number of markets classified as “consistent” increased from 603 in March to 727 in June, while recovery markets rose from 91 to 142. Rising markets fell from 815 to 744 and the number carrying Hotspotting’s special “Rising*” classification dropped from 401 to just five.
Hotspotting’s findings measure sales activity and current market pressure rather than recorded house-price movements, meaning a market classified as declining is not necessarily experiencing falling property values. The company says its Price Predictor Index is designed to assess whether market conditions are likely to support above-average price growth over the following six to 18 months.
Mr Ryder said relying on a single national measure could obscure those differences.
“Anyone reading the national headline without looking at the jurisdiction breakdown will misread the market,” he said.
“This is not one market moving in one direction – it’s many markets moving at very different speeds at the same time.”
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