Anew report has intensified calls for Australia to overhaul health workforce planning, with renewed backing for an independent body to guide training, funding and long term supply.
The Whole of Medical Workforce Compendium report points to widening gaps between demand for care and the number of doctors being trained, particularly in specialist fields. According to the findings, Australia could face a shortfall of 6,981 full time equivalent specialists by 2033, rising to 12,812 by 2048. It also projects a deficit of 2,398 registrars by 2033, increasing to 3,885 by 2048.
Australian Medical Association president Dr Danielle McMullen said the figures reflect long standing concerns about how medical workforce needs are being planned and coordinated.
She said the organisation has repeatedly called for the re-establishment of an independent workforce planning agency to better align policy settings with future demand.
The report highlights uneven distribution across the system, with some regions and specialties already experiencing persistent shortages even as overall medical workforce numbers grow. It also points to continued reliance on international medical graduates to fill gaps, a contribution the AMA acknowledges as important but not sufficient on its own to meet future needs.
Dr McMullen said the pipeline of domestic training places has not kept pace with the expansion in medical school enrolments over recent years. While more students are entering medical degrees, she said this has not translated into enough specialist training positions or general practice pathways to meet community demand.
She noted that recent federal investment in general practice training places has been a positive step, but argued that further action is required from both federal and state and territory governments to ensure training capacity reflects population needs across all specialties.
The AMA is urging governments to commit to a coordinated national approach, including agreement on a Hospital Registrar and Career Medical Officer Framework aimed at supporting doctors before they enter formal specialist training. Dr McMullen said this stage of training is closely linked to retention and the quality of patient care.
The association has also set out proposals in its 2026 to 2027 Pre Budget Submission, including a plan to expand the Specialist Training Program from 920 to 1,700 places over three years. It is also calling for training expansion to prioritise areas with higher unmet demand, particularly outside major cities.
Alongside workforce expansion, the AMA is again advocating for an independent health workforce planning agency, arguing it would provide more consistent data and help governments respond earlier to emerging shortages.
Dr McMullen said the findings should prompt governments to focus on long term planning rather than short term responses to service gaps, noting that access to care is already being affected in parts of the country where specialist shortages are most acute.
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