Australia’s naval leadership is expected to closely examine any final US-Iran arrangement following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with defence analysts warning that keeping key shipping lanes open has come at the cost of sustained military deployment and rising economic pressure.
A brief closure of the Strait has drawn attention to the strain placed on United States naval capacity, alongside disruptions to global trade routes and higher costs for energy and freight. Macquarie University defence and security specialist Associate Professor Adam Lockyer says the episode highlights the fragility of maritime security assumptions that have long underpinned international trade.
“Australia should be watching the Gulf very closely,” Associate Professor Lockyer says, noting the country’s economic links to the Middle East and its reliance on stable sea routes.
He argues the recent crisis has demonstrated how US maritime power can be stretched across competing demands. According to Lockyer, the Persian Gulf saw an unusually large concentration of American naval assets, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Gerald R. Ford and USS George H.W. Bush operating in the region at the same time, a level of deployment not seen since the Iraq War period.
The build-up, he says, reflects the difficulty of managing asymmetric threats in contested waterways, where smaller actors can still disrupt global trade using relatively low-cost tactics such as drone strikes, mines and fast-attack craft.
Lockyer, author of Conventional Maritime Deterrence: The Operational Foundations of Influence at Sea, says the situation in Hormuz offers insight into how modern naval deterrence functions in practice rather than theory.
“In many ways, the US-Iran war has more lessons for our region than the Russian-Ukraine War,” he says.
He adds that any future conflict between major powers in the Indo-Pacific is unlikely to involve direct ground engagement, instead unfolding through long-range missile systems, naval forces and air power operating across wide distances.
Economic consequences have also been felt beyond the Gulf, with shipping delays, higher fuel prices and increased fertiliser costs affecting global supply chains. Lockyer links these pressures to the broader challenge of maintaining uninterrupted sea lanes in contested regions.
“A major navy does not have to be defeated in battle for its influence to lose value,” he says. “Just being disrupted by a smaller opponent, and failing to protect trade routes and security, can expose vulnerabilities.”
Australia’s strategic environment, spanning the Indian, Pacific and Southern Oceans, has historically relied on US naval presence to maintain open sea lanes. However, Lockyer suggests that balance may be shifting as China expands its naval capabilities in the western Pacific while asymmetric threats become more accessible to smaller states.
“This matters a great deal for Australia,” he says. “As an island continent, we have the world’s largest maritime jurisdiction, deep dependence on seaborne trade, and strategic exposure across oceans.”
While ongoing debate around AUKUS continues to focus on submarine acquisition, Lockyer argues the broader question is how Australia should position its maritime capability in an environment where sea control can no longer be assumed and disruption is relatively inexpensive to achieve.
He also points to China’s growing military activity around Taiwan, where regular exercises and naval movements are increasingly viewed as strategic signalling aimed at both regional neighbours and the United States.
“At sea, deterrence is visible,” he says. “Exercises, patrols and naval encounters are watched closely by regional neighbours.”
Lockyer says this visibility extends to the South Pacific, where Australian naval influence has traditionally played a central role, but where competition is becoming more active.
“The sea has always been central to Australian security,” he says. “What is changing is that the contest is no longer theoretical. Control of the sea is becoming something states have to demonstrate, not simply assume.”
Associate Professor Adam Lockyer is available for interview on the implications of the Hormuz situation for maritime security, US naval capacity across multiple regions, and Australia’s future strategic options.
His book, Conventional Maritime Deterrence: The Operational Foundations of Influence at Sea, examines how naval forces use presence, exercises and operations to shape strategic behaviour.
More information is available at https://press.georgetown.edu/Book/Conventional-Maritime-Deterrence
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