Australia’s housing crisis would become less severe under One Nation’s proposed 130,000 annual visa cap, but home ownership would remain out of reach for many households, according to independent modelling by The Indian Sun using AI-assisted scenario analysis.
The modelling examined what could happen if Australia adopted One Nation’s proposal to cap total annual visa arrivals at 130,000, a move that would push net overseas migration into negative territory and leave the national population almost 2.8 million smaller by 2035-36 than under current projections.
While the analysis suggests rents and house prices would be lower than they otherwise would have been, it concludes that migration policy alone would not solve Australia’s affordability challenges.
The modelling projects capital city rents would be between 10 and 14 per cent lower than baseline forecasts by 2035-36, with Sydney and Melbourne recording the largest reductions. House prices in the two largest cities are projected to be about 8 per cent lower than they would otherwise be under current migration settings.
Yet despite those reductions, Sydney’s median dwelling value is still projected to reach about $1.64 million by 2035-36 under the cap, compared with $1.78 million under the baseline scenario. Melbourne’s median dwelling value is projected to reach about $1.09 million, compared with $1.19 million under current settings.
The report’s central finding is that lower migration would provide relief without fundamentally restoring affordability.
“Would reduced migration solve the housing crisis on its own? No,” the study concludes. It argues that while rental shortages would ease and affordability metrics would improve, deeper issues including housing supply constraints, tax settings, financing costs and decades of under-building would remain.
Under the modelling, national rental vacancy rates rise from today’s roughly 1 per cent to between 3.5 and 4.5 per cent by 2030, ending the acute rental shortage across all major capitals.
Sydney emerges as the city most affected by the proposed cap. The modelling suggests Sydney’s population would actually decline slightly over the decade, falling to 5.46 million by 2035-36 instead of growing to 6.25 million under current projections. Melbourne’s population would also be about 770,000 lower than forecast.
The report estimates Sydney and Melbourne rents could be around 14 per cent lower than baseline forecasts by 2035-36. For Melbourne renters, that translates into a projected saving of roughly $125 a week compared with a scenario where migration settings remain unchanged.
The benefits, however, come with trade-offs.
The modelling forecasts underlying demand for new dwellings would fall from about 165,000 homes a year nationally to around 60,000 by 2030. At the same time, housing construction activity is also projected to decline because migrant workers make up a substantial share of the construction workforce.
The report warns that student accommodation, build-to-rent projects and some apartment developments would face the greatest pressure under the policy. It also suggests construction employment risks would be severe under the most restrictive version of the cap.
The study argues that migration is a major driver of rental demand but only one factor influencing house prices. It cites research indicating migration accounts for a much larger share of rental market pressures than it does of dwelling price growth, where interest rates, credit availability and tax settings remain dominant influences.
The conclusion is likely to add nuance to a debate often framed in absolute terms. The modelling suggests One Nation’s policy could deliver measurable relief for renters and first-home buyers, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. But even after a decade of lower migration, Australia’s most expensive housing markets would remain expensive by international standards.
For voters focused on housing affordability, the findings point to a wider reality: migration may influence housing demand, but reducing migration alone is unlikely to resolve the country’s housing challenges.
More info: Housing-Impact-Study-One-Nation-130k-Cap
Support independent community journalism. Support The Indian Sun.
Follow The Indian Sun on X | Instagram | Facebook
Support Independent Community Journalism
Dear Reader,The Indian Sun exists for one reason: to tell stories that might otherwise go unheard.
We report on local councils, state politics, small businesses and cultural festivals. We focus on the Indian diaspora and the wider multicultural community with care, balance and accountability. We publish in print and online, send regular newsletters and produce video content. We also run media training programs to help community organisations share their own stories.
We operate independently.
Community journalism does not have the backing of large media corporations. Advertising revenue fluctuates. Platform algorithms change. Costs continue to rise. Yet the need for credible, grounded reporting in a multicultural Australia has never been greater.
When you support The Indian Sun, you support:
• Independent reporting on issues affecting migrant communities
• Coverage of local and state decisions that shape daily life
• A platform for small businesses and community groups
• Media training that builds skills within the community
• Journalism accountable to readers
We cannot cover everything, but we work to cover what matters.
If you value thoughtful reporting that reflects Australia’s diversity, we invite you to contribute. Every donation helps us maintain the quality and consistency of our work.
Please consider making a contribution today.
Thank you for your support.
The Indian Sun Team
