Australia is experiencing two distinct political shifts driven by financial stress, according to analysis by RedBridge Group Australia Director Kos Samaras, with different generations moving in different electoral directions.
Samaras said recent data does not support the view of a single populist surge, but instead points to a divided response shaped by age and economic pressure. “Australia is not experiencing a single populist insurgency. It is experiencing two, simultaneously, driven by entirely different generations, and shaped by the same underlying force: financial stress.”
Polling shows that among Gen X Australians reporting high levels of financial stress, One Nation is polling above 40 per cent on first preference. Among Gen Z voters facing similar pressure, support for the Greens reaches the same level.
“The same number. The same emotional fuel. Two completely different political destinations. Right across the country, irrespective of suburb or town.”
Samaras said this dynamic reflects structural changes in Australia’s economy and society, particularly in outer suburban and regional communities.
He described a typical voter profile in growth corridors across cities such as Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, where households face rising costs, limited access to infrastructure and fewer economic opportunities.
“The suburb has a different name depending on the state, but the geometry is the same: a long way from the city, a long way from opportunity, and getting further from both with every year that passes without serious investment from any level of government.”
These areas have seen sustained population growth without matching investment in transport, healthcare, education and services. Samaras said this has led to a sense of being overlooked.
“The population growth came. The infrastructure did not follow.”
He said the result is a growing perception among residents that they are not being prioritised by policymakers. “The people who live in these places know, viscerally, that the city and the government that runs it does not think about them very much.”
This experience has shaped voting behaviour across generations in different ways.
Polling shows that among Gen X Australians reporting high levels of financial stress, One Nation is polling above 40 per cent on first preference. Among Gen Z voters facing similar pressure, support for the Greens reaches the same level
Gen X voters, many of whom experienced industrial change and housing pressures over several decades, are increasingly aligning with One Nation. Samaras said their political views reflect a sense of dissatisfaction with established institutions.
“Their politics have calcified around a sense of betrayal, not just by Liberal or Labor, but by the entire established order.”
He said One Nation has become the primary outlet for that sentiment, particularly in regional and outer suburban areas.
At the same time, younger voters are moving in a different direction. Gen Z voters, facing barriers to housing, employment and education, are shifting towards the Greens.
“Gen Z came of age during something different but equally corrosive: a housing market that locked them out before they even started, a cost-of-living crisis that hit them hardest, and a climate trajectory that felt like inherited catastrophe.”
Samaras said this has led to strong support for the Greens among younger voters, particularly those experiencing financial strain.
“Among Gen Z Australians reporting extreme financial stress, they hit over 40 per cent.”
He said the long-term political impact will depend on demographic change, with Gen Z expected to become a larger share of the electorate over time.
“Gen Z does not have a ceiling. It has a runway train. Within five years, there will be more than five million Gen Z Australians enrolled to vote.”
Samaras said this creates pressure on major parties from both directions, particularly for the Coalition, which faces competition on its right flank from One Nation and broader challenges among younger voters.
He noted that One Nation’s growth may be limited by demographic factors. “Gen X is a demographically locked cohort. They are not getting younger. Their numbers in the electorate, as a share, will only shrink.”
The analysis suggests that future elections may be shaped by these parallel shifts, rather than a single national trend.
RedBridge Group Australia analysis by Kos Samaras, adapted from his Substack article
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