Barnaby Joyce has formally joined One Nation, ending days of speculation and confirming a political shift that could upend the conservative vote across regional Australia. Pauline Hanson made the announcement live on 88.9FM in Tamworth, telling listeners, “It’s official! We have made our announcement on 88.9FM in Tamworth—Barnaby Joyce has joined One Nation and has accepted the parties offer for him to lead the NSW senate ticket at the 2028 federal election.”
The move marks the most dramatic defection from a major party in more than a decade. Joyce, a former Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader, resigned from the National Party earlier after signalling deep frustration with the direction of the Coalition under David Littleproud. His departure immediately sparked concern among Liberal and National MPs already grappling with polling that shows a fractured conservative base and rising support for One Nation.
Resolve’s latest survey, released only days before today’s announcement, showed how vulnerable the Coalition had become to a shift like this. According to the poll, 39 per cent of Coalition voters said they would be more likely to vote One Nation if Joyce were leading it. The numbers gave weight to warnings from analysts such as RedBridge’s Kos Samaras, who said the conservative side was “now getting a live lesson in political psychology” as anger around immigration and housing found a political home outside the major parties.
One Nation has been edging upwards across several states, particularly in regional seats where Joyce once commanded strong loyalty. Hanson’s decision to place him at the top of the NSW Senate ticket signals an intention to convert that goodwill into votes in 2028. It also casts fresh uncertainty over the Nationals, whose path to holding seats in New South Wales becomes more complicated with a former leader now campaigning against them.
Joyce addressed the shift directly during the Tamworth broadcast. “Pauline made an offer to me to come to One Nation and I have taken that up,” he said. “Now I’m really going to focus back on the Australian people. There will be some hurt in this decision and I understand that.” Hanson said she was “emotional” about his decision, adding that Joyce brought “knowledge and experience in many areas, especially economics as well and the rural sector”.
His move comes at a moment when the Coalition is under pressure on several fronts. Leadership uncertainty within the Liberal Party continues to hamper its efforts to cut through, and polling in New South Wales and Victoria shows little sign of a broad recovery. Essential’s recent update found rising numbers of voters unable to identify a preferred Liberal leader, while Labor has held its primary vote in most regions.
While Joyce’s supporters in New England have long admired his combative style, the shift to One Nation marks a new chapter rather than a continuation of old battles. Hanson has made gains by positioning herself as a voice for voters who feel sidelined by both major parties, and Joyce’s presence adds a layer of credibility that One Nation has seldom enjoyed within the mainstream conservative space.
Joyce has now set out his reasoning in sharper terms. “I am firmly of the view which I have considered over a long period of time that the best choice before me is to stand for One Nation as a Senator for NSW,” he said in a statement. “I will let the voters be the ultimate arbiter of that decision.” He pointed to immigration and energy policy as key drivers of the shift, saying, “Currently at our centre we have eviscerated our energy platform on a ludicrous quest to change the weather.”
Whether it reshapes the national picture or settles into a regional realignment will become clearer in the months ahead. The immediate impact is more straightforward. A Coalition already dealing with internal strain must now contend with a rival force holding one of its most recognisable figures.
Joyce has placed his next move beyond speculation. One Nation has given him a platform, a ticket and a path to return to federal parliament. The map on the conservative side was already shifting. His decision forces it to shift again.
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