Nitin Gupta, a former ministerial adviser, says every Victorian state election since 2010 has hinged on one clear policy or campaign focus, with both major parties looking to multicultural voters, including the Australian Indian community, to gain an edge. His reflections come as Kos Samaras argues that the full impact of migration between 2010 and 2022 has yet to be felt, with suburban belts continuing to shape the contests of the future.
“In my personal opinion and analysis these were the highlights of various Victorian state elections since 2010 and onwards,” Nitin told The Indian Sun.
For 2010, he says the opposition’s plan to introduce Protective Services Officers at railway stations turned the contest. “Ted Baillieu proved better at communicating with the multicultural communities in Victoria leading up to 2010, when compared with Premier John Brumby.”
Nitin points to Baillieu’s extended outreach, including a 2009 visit to India, frequent appearances at community events, cricket tournaments, temples, and the Indian press. “There was a comprehensive plan of engagement with Australian Indians, new detailed policies with implementation strategies laid and read out to community, and extensive community and industry consultation on various things,” he recalls.
The PSO policy itself appealed to many. “The fact that to be recruited as a PSO did not require mandatory swimming tests, as was the case with Victoria Police recruitment – made the PSO policy look even as an attractive employment avenue to the young members of Indian community.” He credits community supporters such as Aravind Putta, Daya Shetty, Shilpa Hegde, Rampal Muthyala and Goldy Brar, along with himself, as playing “a significant role” in Baillieu’s win.
By 2014, the dynamic shifted. “The opposition’s policy of removal of level crossings by Daniel Andrews turned out to be the election changer.” Nitin says Andrews, with support from Jude Perera, was able to “milk the issues like Little India Dandenong, and IFFM reforms to win back the support of Australian Indian community.”
He says an apology by Andrews and Hong Lim over the treatment of Indian students between 2008 and 2010 “presented a more human side of Andrews to the community which appealed to them.” He names Manoj Kumar, Kaushaliya Vaghela, Oscar Lobo, Aloke Kumar and Jasvinder Siddhu as influential in Labor’s win that year.
In 2018, Nitin believes the real shift came through technology. “Extensive use of social media by Premier Dan Andrews to engage, and communicate directly with the Victorians turned out to be the election changer.” He says Andrews’ strong online presence outmatched Matthew Guy.
“The implementation of level crossing removal could be felt on ground. Andrews through extended use of social media proved better at communicating directly with the multicultural communities in Victoria leading up to 2018.”
Nitin again highlights the influence of Indian community figures backing Labor, while saying Liberals squandered resources. “I personally saw and felt that leading up to 2018 they were wasting too much time and resources on some software that was from overseas… not sure how much advantage that whole exercise gave to the Liberals.”
“This election would be more close than it appears on the paper currently. Having worked closely with Brad Battin, I can confidently say that he would be giving a very good fight to Premier Allan”
For 2022, he is more restrained. “I was not in Victoria for the vast majority of the term leading up to 2022 Victorian state elections. So I would not say much on the 2022 elections. Andrews continued to milk the massive advantage of social media.”
Looking ahead, Nitin sees the next test as still open. “There is still time left leading up to 2026 state elections in Victoria, and a lot of things can happen in that time frame,” he says. But he singles out one policy in particular. “The policy on WFH (Work from home) by Premier Jacinta Allan can prove crucial. More details are awaited on that policy from both sides. But as of now this policy with clear implementation details can turn out to be the election changer.”
With both sides under new leaders, he expects a contest. “This election would be more close than it appears on the paper currently. Having worked closely with Brad Battin, I can confidently say that he would be giving a very good fight to Premier Allan for sure leading up to 2026 Victorian state elections.”
His assessment lines up with Samaras’s argument that political contests are now centred in the diverse, mortgage-burdened commuter belts of Melbourne’s outer suburbs. Just as PSOs, level crossings and social media proved decisive in past elections, new policies such as work-from-home will be tested in those same electorates. The Indian vote, Nitin believes, has been part of that story since 2010 and will remain crucial as migration-driven change continues to reshape Victoria’s politics.
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🗳️ Nitin Gupta says #VictorianElections since 2010 hinged on key policies & #multicultural outreach 🇮🇳 From PSOs to level crossings & social media, Indian community influence grew 📲 Looking ahead, WFH policy may shape 2026 polls 🔮 #TheIndianSun
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