Kos Samaras says the Australia many once imagined has already vanished. The Director at RedBridge Group Australia is writing a commissioned book that traces how the nation has changed since the Second World War. He argues that the transformation has been sharper than even the great migration arcs of the United States.
“It’s a book about the two great waves of migration, the remake of our suburbs and our institutions, and the massive shift to urban, diverse Australia,” Samaras says.
He points out that in 1949, when the House of Representatives grew from 75 to 121 seats, the country was still relatively balanced between two powerful geographies: “The wool shed and the suburbs.”
The real break, he says, came in 1984 when the chamber expanded from 125 to 148 seats. “Two-thirds of them went to the outer suburban belts of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. Only a handful were regional. It took that long for the first post-WW2 wave to appear on the electoral roll in large enough numbers.”
From there the pattern became clear. “Since then, the Australian Electoral Commission’s own classifications have shown the trend to be unmistakable: nearly 60% of all federal divisions are metropolitan. Regional and rural seats are still there, but they are shrinking as a share of the chamber.”
That trend reflects a bigger story about where Australians live. “By the mid-1950s, capital city populations had overtaken the regions. Today, nearly 67% of Australians live in greater capitals. Migration and suburban growth haven’t just changed our cities, they’ve shifted the balance of political power itself.”
For Samaras, parliament is never fixed in place. “It is a mirror of who we are, reflecting the post-war European arrivals, the suburban sprawl of the 1960s and 1970s, and the more recent migration waves from Asia and beyond. Each redistribution, each expansion, shows the slow eclipse of regional weight by urban power.”
The story isn’t finished. “The full impact of migration between 2010 to 2022 has not been realised yet. We will see that more pronounced in 2028 and beyond.”
That, he says, is where the challenge lies for politicians and business leaders alike. “For political parties, those contesting elections, and even corporate Australia, the consequences are profound. To win government now, you must win the diverse, mortgage-laden commuter belts ringing the capitals, coupled with progressive epicentres that young professionals heavily populate. Ignore them and you lose—this also applies to minor parties.”
Samaras adds a cautionary note. “This will not naturally equate to all good news for Labor as established migrant communities do change, as have the Greeks, Italians etc.”Kos Samaras says the Australia many once imagined has already vanished. The Director at RedBridge Group Australia is writing a commissioned book that traces how the nation has changed since the Second World War. He argues that the transformation has been sharper than even the great migration arcs of the United States.
“It’s a book about the two great waves of migration, the remake of our suburbs and our institutions, and the massive shift to urban, diverse Australia,” Samaras says.
He points out that in 1949, when the House of Representatives grew from 75 to 121 seats, the country was still relatively balanced between two powerful geographies: “The wool shed and the suburbs.”
The real break, he says, came in 1984 when the chamber expanded from 125 to 148 seats. “Two-thirds of them went to the outer suburban belts of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. Only a handful were regional. It took that long for the first post-WW2 wave to appear on the electoral roll in large enough numbers.”
From there the pattern became clear. “Since then, the Australian Electoral Commission’s own classifications have shown the trend to be unmistakable: nearly 60% of all federal divisions are metropolitan. Regional and rural seats are still there, but they are shrinking as a share of the chamber.”
That trend reflects a bigger story about where Australians live. “By the mid-1950s, capital city populations had overtaken the regions. Today, nearly 67% of Australians live in greater capitals. Migration and suburban growth haven’t just changed our cities, they’ve shifted the balance of political power itself.”
For Samaras, parliament is never fixed in place. “It is a mirror of who we are, reflecting the post-war European arrivals, the suburban sprawl of the 1960s and 1970s, and the more recent migration waves from Asia and beyond. Each redistribution, each expansion, shows the slow eclipse of regional weight by urban power.”
The story isn’t finished. “The full impact of migration between 2010 to 2022 has not been realised yet. We will see that more pronounced in 2028 and beyond.”
That, he says, is where the challenge lies for politicians and business leaders alike. “For political parties, those contesting elections, and even corporate Australia, the consequences are profound. To win government now, you must win the diverse, mortgage-laden commuter belts ringing the capitals, coupled with progressive epicentres that young professionals heavily populate. Ignore them and you lose—this also applies to minor parties.”
Samaras adds a cautionary note. “This will not naturally equate to all good news for Labor as established migrant communities do change, as have the Greeks, Italians etc.”
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