For a suburb that once languished in the shadows of Melbourne’s glossier postcodes, Frankston has pulled off a quiet comeback. It now sits atop Hotspotting’s Winter 2025 Price Predictor Index, marking it as the suburb most likely to see capital growth. Not far behind are Werribee, Carrum Downs, and Langwarrin—all part of a broader revival in Greater Melbourne that’s now shaping Australia’s housing conversation.
Hotspotting’s methodology focuses on sales volume, not price, arguing that sales activity tends to move first, with prices following. That logic is hard to ignore: Frankston’s surge comes after a two-year lull across Melbourne. Now it leads a list of 50 “supercharged” suburbs, defined not by glossy brochures or coffee carts, but by hard data.
Terry Ryder, Director of Hotspotting, credits Melbourne’s turnaround to what he calls a “quiet acceleration” since late 2024. “Frankston has gone from underperformer to frontrunner,” he said. Werribee’s appearance on the list backs that up, as does the inclusion of Norlane in Greater Geelong, and units in North Melbourne. It’s not just Melbourne’s east and south-east any more. The west is stirring.
The spreadsheet supporting the list puts Victoria firmly in the driver’s seat, accounting for 18 of the 50 top picks. That’s more than double the count from New South Wales and Queensland. Wyndham Council—home to Werribee—has long been seen as a high-volume, investor-driven zone. But this time, the upswing appears broader and more organic. In Werribee, the number of rising sales quarters hit five in a row, and price momentum, while still muted, is trending positive.
Sydney doesn’t disappear from view entirely. Western suburbs such as Riverstone and Quakers Hill—both within the Blacktown and The Hills LGAs—make the list. Here, too, it’s the outer rings attracting attention. One agent described Riverstone as “the last affordable outpost with rail access,” and the sales volume backs that claim.
Then there’s Darwin—long ignored, now emerging. Ninety-two per cent of Greater Darwin’s suburbs are ranked as rising markets. Not a single suburb is in decline. Hotspotting’s Tim Graham is blunt: “This is the boom that only we saw coming.” Units in Darwin CBD are moving again, and houses in Palmerston’s Durack and Rosebery are following suit. Unlike other capitals, Darwin didn’t inflate wildly during the pandemic years, and that restraint may now be its advantage.
Adelaide, meanwhile, refuses to go backwards. It doesn’t roar like Frankston, but its steady and reliabe. Christies Beach and Ingle Farm are on the list, and Ryder notes that Adelaide has been rising “longer than any other” capital. Even with a dip in quarterly sales, the overall upward trajectory holds.
Regional Queensland gets a nod too, led by the Gold Coast, where suburbs like Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Beach, and Miami are showing renewed energy in their unit markets. Sales volumes in 60 of the 90 suburbs across the coastal strip are rising. Transactions are up. The same cannot be said for Brisbane, where much of the heat appears to have already passed.
The shift away from regional boomtowns back to capital cities is one of the less expected turns in this year’s data. During the COVID years, the exodus narrative dominated, with buyers fleeing cities for the regions. That script is now being rewritten. Melbourne and Darwin are reasserting themselves. Even Sydney’s outer west has life in it.
Importantly, this is a volume story, not a price story. Median price trackers might still show little movement, but that’s not where the action is. As Ryder puts it, “Anyone who thought the market was flat hasn’t been paying attention. The real story is not in median prices—it’s in sales volumes, and the signs are clear.”
The signs suggest the areas once written off as too far, too fringe or too unfashionable are making a comeback. Buyers, whether first-time homeowners or investors, are shifting their attention to where transactions are happening. And for now, those transactions are happening in places like Frankston and Werribee.
The Index doesn’t offer predictions as much as probabilities. But if sales volumes remain a reliable lead indicator, then the suburbs topping this list may look very different—and much dearer—by this time next year.
Data Source: Hotspotting, Price Predictor Index Winter 2025
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