Australia’s struggle with COVID-19 is not over, but it is certainly different. New mortality figures show that in February 2025, only 128 people died from the virus, according to doctor-certified records released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. That’s nearly half the number in January, and well below the 272 deaths in February last year. It’s the clearest indication yet that the virus had moved off centre stage, its deadliness subdued by immunity, better care, and perhaps the virus’s own mutations.
However, more recent developments suggest a need for renewed vigilance. Since May, a new Omicron subvariant, NB.1.8.1, has been spreading across Australia. Genomic sequencing indicates that NB.1.8.1 accounts for over 40% of sequenced cases in Victoria, about 25% in Western Australia and New South Wales, and approximately 20% in Queensland. Wastewater surveillance has confirmed its dominance in Perth . While current data do not show that NB.1.8.1 causes more severe illness than previous strains, its increased transmissibility and potential to evade immunity have raised concerns among health experts .
The disease that once shut down cities and filled morgues now features further down the list of what actually kills Australians. Cancer, heart disease, and dementia remain the leading causes. Even deaths due to respiratory illnesses and diabetes are more common than those from COVID-19, and many of them too have dropped. In February this year, deaths from cancer, respiratory disease, and ischaemic heart disease were each at least 7% lower than the same month last year. Dementia, meanwhile, crept up slightly, with deaths rising by 4.7%.
But the most telling trend lies in how COVID appears on death certificates. A growing share of people now die with the virus rather than from it. In February, 32 Australians had COVID listed as a contributing factor to their death, though not the main cause. That distinction matters. It reflects a population with broad immunity, where the virus no longer overwhelms otherwise healthy individuals, but instead compounds existing health problems. The archetypal COVID death in 2025 is not someone struck down unexpectedly, but rather an elderly patient with multiple conditions whose final chapter includes the virus.
Other respiratory viruses are returning to their pre-pandemic places in the cycle of seasonal illness. Influenza, which all but vanished during lockdowns and border closures, is back. In the first three months of this year, Australia recorded 100 flu deaths, up from 28 in the same period in 2024. RSV, a virus dangerous mainly for babies and the elderly, caused 14 deaths over the same period. Small numbers, yes, but a sign that other threats are back in play now that COVID no longer commands all the oxygen.
Globally, the picture varies. The virus continues to mutate and evolve, with new subvariants circulating – none causing panic yet, but all being watched. India has recently seen a modest rise in cases, reporting nearly 4,000 active cases and 32 deaths by June 2. The culprits appear to be new subvariants of Omicron, NB.1.8.1 and LF.7, both linked to the JN.1 strain. According to the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium, these variants are gaining ground in states like Kerala, Delhi, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu.
In the United States, the LP.8.1 variant—another offshoot of Omicron—is now dominant, accounting for roughly 73% of cases. So far, there is no evidence that LP.8.1 is more dangerous than earlier variants. But the constant churn of new subvariants has become part of the background noise. Where once each new letter of the Greek alphabet brought fresh restrictions, today’s variants arrive with less drama. Surveillance continues, but few expect sudden shocks.
One reason for the virus’s subdued profile, beyond population-level immunity, may lie in the virus’s own playbook. A study from Johns Hopkins University released in May points to a more complex biological battle still being waged in the body. Researchers found that SARS-CoV-2 can reprogramme neutrophils—frontline immune cells—into a form that suppresses the body’s broader immune response. These altered cells, known as PMN-MDSCs, are typically seen in cancer and are known to inhibit T-cells. In essence, the virus hijacks the immune system’s infantry, turning them into saboteurs.
This mechanism may help explain why some people continue to experience severe COVID, even as broader immunity rises. The study found that patients with severe illness had higher levels of these dysfunctional cells, suggesting that new treatments targeting this transformation could help prevent progression in future outbreaks.
In Australia, the broader mortality trends offer both reassurance and reminders. Across January and February this year, COVID claimed 368 doctor-certified lives. That’s 47% fewer than in the same period last year, and 61% fewer than in 2023. Deaths from respiratory diseases overall were slightly down from last year, though still higher than in 2023. Diabetes deaths dropped notably, as did deaths from stroke and heart attacks.
Yet COVID remains among the top ten causes of death, and complacency remains a risk. Booster vaccine uptake has slowed dramatically. Only around 6% of Australians have received a booster dose in the past six months. The government continues to offer free shots, especially for those over 65 or with chronic conditions, but the urgency has faded from public perception. With cases low, many assume the threat is over.
There’s also the long shadow of long COVID. Thousands of Australians continue to report symptoms months after infection—from brain fog and fatigue to joint pain and breathlessness. Long COVID doesn’t show up in mortality data, but it carries an economic cost. It affects workforce participation, increases reliance on public health services, and may reshape chronic disease burdens for years. The National COVID-19 Health Management Plan includes funding for research and care, but long COVID remains poorly understood and inconsistently tracked.
Australia’s latest data offer reason for measured optimism. The virus is killing fewer people. Flu and RSV are being managed. Hospitals are no longer on red alert. But the virus hasn’t vanished. New variants are still appearing. The risk of complacency is real, particularly if low booster rates coincide with winter illness spikes. Policymakers must plan for a future where COVID is present but not dominant—a recurring character in the national health drama, rather than the main act.
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🦠Australia’s #COVID deaths drop to 128 in Feb 2025, but new Omicron subvariant NB.1.8.1 spreads (40% in VIC).💉Booster uptake slows (6% in 6 months) despite long COVID risks. Global variants emerge, severity low but transmissibility high. #TheIndianSunhttps://t.co/yi6yr8uYlV
— The Indian Sun (@The_Indian_Sun) June 4, 2025
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