As attention shifts to economic recovery and global conflicts, COVID-19 is making an understated return. Across Australia, India, the US, UK and Canada, health systems are observing a rise in infections, hospitalisations, or both. The current uptick, driven primarily by the NB.1.8.1 Omicron subvariant, has not yet triggered panic—but it is prompting closer scrutiny.
Australia is experiencing its most consistent rise in COVID cases this year. Queensland alone has reported more than 15,000 confirmed cases in 2025, with a rolling average of over 100 new infections per day. Hospitalisations are also climbing. Since January, nearly 3,000 Queenslanders have been admitted due to COVID-related complications. In the last full week of May, 99 new hospitalisations were recorded.
NB.1.8.1 is now the dominant subvariant in parts of Western Australia and has been detected in wastewater and clinical samples in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. It spreads efficiently and appears to partially evade immune protection from prior infections or vaccines, though it does not currently exhibit higher virulence.
Victoria’s health data paints a broader picture. While COVID admissions are increasing, influenza and RSV are also placing pressure on hospitals. One week in May saw flu cases rise 45 per cent and RSV cases by 19.3 per cent. In New South Wales, test positivity for COVID rose to 5.7 per cent by mid-May. Western Australia now attributes approximately 50 per cent of its COVID cases to NB.1.8.1. Vaccination uptake, meanwhile, remains low across all states. Booster campaigns, once robust, have slowed markedly.
India is also reporting a rise in infections. As of 31 May, active COVID cases have risen to 2,710 nationally. Kerala accounts for 1,147 of these cases—over 40 per cent. Maharashtra and Delhi are also recording a slow increase. The Indian government has requested preparedness reports from all states, with health authorities watching for further spread of both NB.1.8.1 and another emerging subvariant, LF.7. Testing remains limited in some states, suggesting actual case numbers could be higher.
The United States has detected NB.1.8.1 in several states, including New York, Ohio and California. Current case numbers remain low, but the variant’s immune escape characteristics have led the CDC to resume close monitoring. There has been no widespread surge in hospitalisations, but health officials have warned of complacency as booster uptake declines and public concern fades.
In the United Kingdom, the latest government surveillance shows a decline in COVID indicators. In the week ending 13 May, 842 COVID cases were recorded in hospital settings, down from 1,102 the week prior. PCR test positivity also fell. While NB.1.8.1 has been detected in genomic samples, its prevalence is still low.
Canada remains the most stable among the five countries. Data from British Columbia’s public health authority indicates that test positivity for COVID-19 is at one of the lowest levels recorded since the start of the pandemic. Hospitalisations remain flat, and no substantial increase in variant activity has been reported.
Across all jurisdictions, the clearest trend is the widening gap between case surveillance and public engagement. Health departments are tracking infections and variants with reasonable consistency, but public attention has moved on. In Australia, only a small percentage of eligible populations have received the latest COVID booster. In India, vaccine uptake has also slowed. In most of the West, COVID is now treated as one of many respiratory viruses rather than a unique threat.
The data shows NB.1.8.1 is more transmissible but not more severe. What matters now is not just the strain itself, but the systems in place to manage its spread and consequences. Public health planning has shifted from lockdowns to mitigation—targeted vaccination, early treatment for the vulnerable, and continued genomic sequencing. That infrastructure is still in place, but whether it remains resourced over the next 12 months is uncertain.
COVID has moved out of the emergency phase, but it hasn’t gone away. The current wave is unlikely to resemble the peaks of 2020 or 2021, but it will test the resilience of health systems already under pressure from winter viruses. The data points to an uncomfortable truth: even as societies stop paying attention, the virus keeps evolving.
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