The Division of Bruce, stitched into Melbourne’s southeastern suburbs, is quietly shaping up to be one of the most closely watched battlegrounds of the 2025 federal election. A former Liberal seat now clinging to Labor by a reduced margin, Bruce carries the quiet weight of suburban Australia’s changing face—one that speaks many languages, drives on crowded roads, and worries more about school capacity and mortgage payments than political slogans.
The numbers help sketch the outline. Based on the 2021 Census, Bruce is home to roughly 179,139 people, with a median age of 37—youthful enough to reflect a working-age skew. About 49% of its residents were born overseas, but more tellingly, 63% have both parents born outside Australia. This is not a fringe of diversity—it is its mainstream. Among the largest groups are those of Indian (5.8%), Afghan (4.9%), and Sri Lankan (4.6%) descent. The area is also linguistically textured: Mandarin, Tamil, Dari, and Sinhalese are all spoken widely at home.
Religious affiliation mirrors this breadth. A quarter of Bruce’s residents report no religious affiliation, but 20.5% are Catholic and 13.8% identify as Muslim. These numbers don’t just inform census records—they help shape what campaigning looks like on the ground. Electoral pamphlets are translated. Community events span Ramadan, Diwali, and Lunar New Year. Door-knocking doesn’t begin with English.
On the economic front, Bruce sits slightly behind the state average. Households report a median weekly income of $1,672. Median weekly rent sits at $350, while average monthly mortgage repayments hit $1,800. The double-income household is common, as is the two-car garage. The result? Traffic. Congestion on arterial roads like the Monash Freeway is a near-daily grievance, and frustration with public transport links echoes across community forums and parent WhatsApp groups.
Julian Hill, the Labor MP since 2016, enters this race with the benefit—and burden—of incumbency. A former local council mayor and public servant, Hill has kept a steady line on social services, migrant inclusion, and climate policy. He retained Bruce in the 2022 election with a two-party-preferred vote of 56.6%, though a redistribution since then has shaved his margin from 7.3% to 5.3%, nudging Bruce closer to the edge of competitiveness. Hill is present in the electorate, often seen at festivals, citizenship ceremonies, and town halls—but this time around, proximity may not be enough.
His chief challenger is Zahid Safi of the Liberal Party. An Afghan-Australian and community advocate, Safi is pitching a message anchored in cost-of-living concerns, education, and small business. He is aiming to appeal to migrant voters through cultural alignment and economic messaging. However, a 2021 parliamentary submission co-authored by Safi, which questioned whether Hazaras face ethnic persecution in Afghanistan, has drawn sharp backlash—including from many within his own community. Whether this controversy dents his credibility remains to be seen, but in a seat where the Hazara population is large and active, it’s unlikely to pass unnoticed.
The Greens have put forward Rhonda Garad, a Monash University academic and Greater Dandenong councillor. Garad is an experienced campaigner and well-versed in public health, but the Greens have historically struggled in Bruce. That said, with housing pressure mounting and climate anxiety climbing among younger voters, she may yet find fertile ground, particularly in and around Springvale and Keysborough.
Further crowding the field are minor party and independent candidates: Bianca Colecchia for One Nation, Wendy Birchall for Family First, Christine Skrobo for the Liberal Democrats, and Sam Anderson from the Trumpet of Patriots. They’re unlikely to win, but they can disrupt—particularly on issues such as law and order, religious rights, or government overreach. In a close seat, preference flows from these candidates can sway results, making their participation far more than symbolic.
Social listening over recent months reveals a cluster of top-of-mind concerns among Bruce residents: rising interest rates, school enrolment pressures, aged care access, and street-level safety. Talkback radio, Facebook community groups, and local markets host quiet conversations about crime, youth programs, and the cost of groceries. These concerns rarely cut cleanly along party lines. What they require is proximity, familiarity, and solutions that feel local.
Bruce has form when it comes to political evolution. From 1955 to 1996, the seat was held by the Liberal Party, including by high-profile figures such as Billy Snedden and Julian Beale. It flipped to Labor with Alan Griffin in 1996 after redistribution altered its character. Since then, Labor has held on, but not without effort. Suburbs like Glen Waverley and Mount Waverley, recently added to the electorate, are less Labor-leaning than parts of Dandenong or Noble Park. That redistribution hasn’t just changed a boundary—it’s changed the arithmetic.
Turnout in the 2022 election reached 88.2%, with 4.34% informal votes. While consistent with national patterns, it does suggest a portion of the electorate is either disengaged or struggling with the voting process, perhaps due to language barriers or confusion over preferences. With more minor parties entering the race, informal voting could tick up, making education and outreach crucial over the coming months.
Campaigning in Bruce now means engaging in multiple languages, across a web of community associations, WhatsApp groups, ethnic radio, and religious congregations. It means dodging traffic on a Saturday morning to catch a footy game in Narre Warren before making it to a mosque in Doveton by midday. It means speaking less, listening more.
There’s no runaway favourite this time. Early sentiment analysis doesn’t suggest any wave is forming—red, blue, or green. That puts the pressure squarely on local campaigns and candidate cut-through. For the parties hoping to claim Bruce—or to keep it—it will come down to whether their policies land not just at the doorstep, but in the household conversations behind them.
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🏛️ #Bruce (#Vic) emerges as key multicultural battleground with Labor's 5.3% margin. 🌏 Indian, Afghan & Sri Lankan communities pivotal in this diverse seat. 🚗 Cost-of-living, schools & traffic dominate over ideology. #TheIndianSun @JulianHillMPhttps://t.co/twPJ3nywRK
— The Indian Sun (@The_Indian_Sun) April 17, 2025
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