Tarric Brooker doesn’t mince words when it comes to the state of Australia’s job market. While government officials boast about record-breaking job creation, Brooker points out that the numbers might not paint such a rosy picture. The 1 million jobs created under the Albanese government have been hailed as an achievement, but there’s a larger context to consider.
Brooker explains in his newsletter Avid Commentator Report, “Yes, 1.04 million jobs were created, but that only keeps pace with labour force growth.” The Australian working-age population grew by 1.38 million people during this period, while the labour force itself expanded by 1.1 million. It’s a reflection of Australia’s demographic shift rather than a sign of a booming economy.
He highlights that the growth in labour force participation isn’t solely driven by economic confidence or opportunity. “We’re seeing financial stress across the board. This isn’t people entering the workforce out of choice or ambition—many are forced in due to the rising cost of living,” he says. With inflation biting and wages not keeping up, Australians are left with little choice but to take on more work, often in precarious roles.
Looking at unemployment, Brooker notes an upward trend that’s hard to ignore. “When the Albanese government took office, the unemployment rate was at 3.76%, and it dropped to 3.49% in late 2022, the lowest in nearly 50 years. But now, it’s up to 4.10%.” That’s 93,300 more Australians out of work. For a government so focused on job creation, this is a troubling development.
Brooker adds, “The government can point to external factors, but it has pursued a strategy I like to call ‘Burnout Economics.’” The term captures the essence of a government running its policies at full throttle, driving job creation while simultaneously ramping up migration and spending. These factors, according to Brooker, have exacerbated inflationary pressures in the economy.
Brooker looks into the imbalance between public and private sector job growth. “Recent data showed a massive spike in public sector jobs—499,000 in a single quarter—while private sector roles fell by 516,200,” he notes. For Brooker, this isn’t a one-off fluke. “Year-on-year, private sector job growth has been negative. We’ve seen 264,200 fewer private sector jobs, compared with a surge of 639,000 in public sector positions.”
This dramatic shift raises questions about the sustainability of the economy. Brooker is concerned that too many of these jobs are dependent on government spending rather than market-driven forces. “It’s one thing for governments to create jobs in essential services, but when private sector job growth is on life support, we’re entering dangerous territory.”
Australia’s reliance on government-funded employment could lead to long-term economic challenges. “There’s a tipping point where government jobs stop being a boon and start becoming a liability. Public sector jobs are funded by taxpayers, and with fewer private sector workers contributing, this model becomes unsustainable,” Brooker warns.
His broader critique is about the overall strategy. “You can’t solve everything by increasing migration or printing jobs. At some point, the economy needs to stand on its own two feet,” he says. In his view, the Albanese government’s approach could lead to burnout—both for the workforce and the broader economy.
“This isn’t just about keeping the unemployment rate down or creating jobs for the sake of it. If those jobs aren’t sustainable, if they aren’t contributing to long-term economic health, then all we’re doing is kicking the can down the road.” Australia’s job market, as Brooker sees it, is at a crossroads.
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