Despite potential for higher numbers in the fall, bananas remain exceedingly scarce. There has likely been a shortage of bananas in the market for the last six weeks. Plantains are in extremely short supply, according to Andy Thomas-Stivalet of Kavidac Produce. “We heard that plantain production in Ecuador was down 50% from the previous year. Similar things have happened to our crops in Mexico. Bananas are also little. There are a few potential explanations for this. One is that the quantities nearly seem to have shifted to the end of the year. “Based on the bag stem counts we observe, it appears that everything that typically occurs between January and March occurred this year between May and June.
Bananas are still incredibly hard to come by despite the possibility of increased quantity in the fall. Bananas have probably been hard to come by for the past six weeks. According to Andy Thomas-Stivalet of Kavidac Produce, there is a severe shortage of plantains. “According to reports, plantain production in Ecuador decreased by 50% from the previous year. Our crops in Mexico have had comparable problems. And bananas are little. There are several possible justifications for this. One is that the quantities almost appear to have changed at the year’s end.” It looks that everything that generally happens between January and March this year occurred between May and June based on the bag stem counts we monitor.
Normally, there would be a massive fruit explosion happening right now all across the planet, but based on bag counts, this is likely to happen around October or November. Thomas-Stivalet declares, “I’ve never seen this before, and weeks 38 to 40 are when more supplies ought to be arriving. Given that much of the precipitation is being drawn towards Southeastern Asia, the growing regions may also be impacted by 2022’s La Nina. “Central America and the northern half of South America have seen heavy rains and constant cloud cover. Tropical storms have also consistently affected us,” he adds.
Then there are the farms that are being shut down in Mexico, Ecuador, Honduras, and other nations. “We estimate that approximately 10 million boxes of fruit were lost, and that amount just includes farm closures significant enough to be covered by the news. According to Thomas-Stivalet, 10 million is little under 10% of the weekly volume in the United States. But the demand appears to be stable. Contrary to other commodities affected by the current economic climate, demand for bananas continues uninterrupted since customers are managing their expenditure and they remain a less expensive produce item.
Banana prices in the US have generally not increased. Retailers appear to be bearing the majority of the recent cost hikes at the store level. Looking ahead, market prices for both bananas and plantains are very high. However, as these greater stem counts enter the market, costs should decrease over the coming weeks, according to Thomas-Stivalet. “Around week 40 may be the time when prices return to more typical seasonal market circumstances.”
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