Former ministerial adviser Nitin Gupta says the next Victorian state election is likely to be closely contested, with multicultural outreach and media engagement set to play a central role in determining the outcome.
Speaking to The Indian Sun, Nitin said both major parties enter the 2026 contest with distinct strengths and challenges. “It’s going to be pretty close fight in next Victorian elections is all I can say. Both Premier Jacinta Allan and Opposition leader Jess Wilson have their own set of advantages and disadvantages,” he said.
He said the Opposition faces a clear task in the months ahead. “Coming to Jess Wilson, she has to cover quite few yards in the multicultural outreach. A good start would be to organise a ‘Multicultural Media Conference’, and send the right message to multicultural media stakeholders with some solid relevant budgeted announcement over there,” he said.
Nitin said electoral success will depend on broader community support. “Winning sixteen plus seats would be difficult without support of multicultural voters. And winning multicultural voters would require massive messaging in the multicultural media,” he said.
With early voting expected to begin in mid-November 2026, he said time is limited. “The early voting for Victorian state elections would start around 15 November 2026. So hardly six months left before the voting starts, and there is lot of ground to cover for Jess Wilson,” he said.
Drawing comparisons with the 2010 campaign, Nitin said the scale of the task has increased. “Compared to the 2010 Victorian elections, in 2010 we had to win 13 marginal seats. Roughly eight of those marginal seats were where Australian Indian voters were in decisive numbers,” he said.
“In 2026 Victorian elections, Jess Wilson has to win 16-17 seats. Roughly ten of those marginal seats have Australian Indian voters in decisive numbers,” he added.
He said Labor currently holds an advantage within Indian Australian communities. “When it comes to Australian Indian voters, currently Premier Jacinta Allan and the ALP have a clear advantage. And one of the main reasons for that is her massive use of multicultural media for getting the message across,” he said.
Nitin pointed to earlier campaign strategies that relied on sustained engagement. “For Australian Indian media coverage the target I had set was two thousand media articles over the four year term, and broke it down into monthly and weekly targets. So benchmarks were roughly ten media articles every week, roughly forty articles every month, and five hundred articles every year,” he said.
He said those efforts were matched by community engagement. “I had set a rough target of around 100 events and 50 meetings over the four year period, broke it down to at least two local Australian Indian events every month, and at least one relevant community group or industry or locality related meeting every month. And we had maintained that strictly over next 48 months,” he said.
By mid-2010, he said, the results were visible. “By May 2010, the then Opposition leader had already attended nearly 80 to 85 local Australian Indian events, and joined in roughly 40 to 45 meetings with relevant industry and community groups or leaders. And all these events and community interactions were backed by massive media coverage in local Australian Indian media,” he said.
“In 2026 Victorian elections, Jess Wilson has to win 16-17 seats. Roughly ten of those marginal seats have Australian Indian voters in decisive numbers”
He contrasted that with current engagement levels. “Compare this to hardly 4 or 5 local Australian Indian community events have been attended by Jess Wilson as an Opposition leader till now that have got media coverage. I am not yet aware of Jess Wilson meeting any major relevant Australian Indian community or industry group for one on one discussions that has got coverage in media,” he said.
On media visibility, he said the gap remains wide. “When it comes to coverage in local Australian Indian media, Jess Wilson has hardly managed around 25-30 articles till now as an Opposition leader,” he said.
Nitin also noted policy gaps. “Jess is yet to come out with her alternate budgeted versions of Victoria India strategy and TEPI,” he said.
He said the government has maintained a steady presence. “Premier Allan on the other side has visited and met with plenty of local small business owners and stakeholders from the local Australian Indian community, and those meetings have got massive mainstream media coverage as well,” he said.
“Last few years, Premier Allan has been very consistent and thorough in engaging and messaging through multicultural media,” he added.
Despite the challenges, Nitin said the contest remains open. “So yes, Jess Wilson still has a very good chance of winning next Victorian elections. But it would be very difficult for her to win sixteen plus seats without massive outreach in the multicultural community and media. She has some more work to do,” he said.
Support independent community journalism. Support The Indian Sun.
Follow The Indian Sun on X | Instagram | Facebook
Support Independent Community Journalism
Dear Reader,The Indian Sun exists for one reason: to tell stories that might otherwise go unheard.
We report on local councils, state politics, small businesses and cultural festivals. We focus on the Indian diaspora and the wider multicultural community with care, balance and accountability. We publish in print and online, send regular newsletters and produce video content. We also run media training programs to help community organisations share their own stories.
We operate independently.
Community journalism does not have the backing of large media corporations. Advertising revenue fluctuates. Platform algorithms change. Costs continue to rise. Yet the need for credible, grounded reporting in a multicultural Australia has never been greater.
When you support The Indian Sun, you support:
• Independent reporting on issues affecting migrant communities
• Coverage of local and state decisions that shape daily life
• A platform for small businesses and community groups
• Media training that builds skills within the community
• Journalism accountable to readers
We cannot cover everything, but we work to cover what matters.
If you value thoughtful reporting that reflects Australia’s diversity, we invite you to contribute. Every donation helps us maintain the quality and consistency of our work.
Please consider making a contribution today.
Thank you for your support.
The Indian Sun Team
