Australia’s immigration debate has become “politically charged” and “rarely is it based on evidence”, former immigration deputy secretary Dr Abul Rizvi told the Royal Society of NSW as he pressed the case for a long-term population plan and clearer public definitions.
Speaking at the Royal Society’s 1338th Ordinary General Meeting and Open Lecture on 11 February, Rizvi framed his central challenge as a practical one for government: “if you were the prime minister or the immigration minister what would an immigration plan for Australia look like”.
He argued that despite the scale of population change in recent years, “none of the major parties have a plan”, adding that the federal government had “subsequently decided that’s not a good idea and apparently we’re not going to have a plan because why would we plan our future population”.
Rizvi opened by separating the two measures he said were repeatedly confused in politics and media coverage. “There are two crucial definitions in this space that the media and often the politicians consistently seem to jumble up,” he said.
“The first is the migration and humanitarian programs. What they are is the number of permanent visas issued irrespective of whether the person is in already in Australia,” he said, noting that “around 60 to 70% of people who are granted a permanent visa are already in Australia”.
“The other thing that you’ll find politicians will then jumble up is net overseas migration,” Rizvi said. “Net overseas migration measures the number of people who arrive in Australia. So we’re now talking about movements, not visas.”
He described net overseas migration as covering “Australian citizens, New Zealand citizens, indeed anybody who arrives in Australia and stays in Australia for 12 months out of 16”, and departures as those who leave and remain away “for 12 months out of 16”.
Rizvi said the post-pandemic surge was concentrated in arrivals and departures rather than permanent visas. “In the period since COVID the big increase in numbers was in net overseas migration. Permanent migration actually remained relatively constant,” he said. He warned there were “consequences of having a static permanent migration program and a booming net overseas migration”
He also cautioned against treating immigration as a single-cause explanation for complex pressures. “Most people will think about immigration through a single lens. And at the moment, the big lens is housing,” he said, adding that “the other big lens that’s recently emerged is inflation. Inflation went up, must have been immigration.”
“I think there’s very little evidence actually that the recent increase in inflation was due to immigration,” he said, arguing that “anyone can make up a story and if it suits your particular bent in terms of politics you make the story”.
Rizvi urged a broader assessment that combined “top down” impacts such as “demography”, “the economy”, “the budget”, “infrastructure” and “bottom up” program design, including “specific visa categories” and questions such as “is this a visa category we should still have”.
He said those settings cut across “industry and skill sector needs”, “regional and geographic issues”, “family migration”, “humanitarian migration”, “climate migration”, “social cohesion”, and “geopolitical defense issues”.
“We now have a climate visa. You may not have heard of it, but we do have a climate change visa now,” he said.
On demographics, Rizvi argued net migration “effectively slows the aging process. It doesn’t stop it. It just slows it down”, and said policy choices were inseparable from the country’s age profile.
“If we are choosing the question, how many Australians should there be? You’re really choosing those three things, that is the level of net migration, the rate of population aging, and the point at which deaths exceed births,” he said.
He said Australia’s median age was “38”, compared with Canada’s “42”, and argued that “four years makes a very big difference”, pointing to Canada already being “in a situation where deaths exceed births”.
Rizvi placed Australia’s debate in a wider competition for mobile workers and students as developed nations age. “Over the next 20 to 30 years to attract a highly mobile, intelligent, high achieving immigrant over the next 20 or 30 years will change,” he said. “It will not be so easy simply because the competition amongst our trading partners will change.”
He said many countries were expanding international education pathways in ways that mirrored Australia’s earlier approach. “Almost all of those European nations and China and Japan and South Korea now and increasingly rely on overseas students to their countries with a pathway to permanent residence for those students,” he said. “When people tell you we don’t need overseas students, ask them what these other countries are doing.”
In discussing post-pandemic policy settings, he pointed to the steps taken to lift student numbers and work rights, including “unrestricted work rights”, fee-free applications, and a “co visa” that he said drew “over 150,000 people”.
He also described changes to working holiday arrangements and New Zealand citizenship rules, saying the recent shift allowing New Zealanders to seek citizenship after four years, “as long as you’ve not been naughty”, had contributed to higher arrivals.
Rizvi’s warning about system pressure returned repeatedly to the gap between movement-driven growth and capped permanent places. He said backlogs would “keep banking up” across multiple categories, and argued that “eventually, that brick wall will break. It’ll either break for legal reasons or it will break for political reasons, but it will break.”
“By the end of this financial year the backlog of partner visa applications will be about 120,000. Every year about 65 to 70,000 partner visa applications are received. Anyone want to guess how many partner visa places there are? 40,000. Now in my maths that doesn’t work.”
On partner visas, he said recent policy had created a mounting queue. “By the end of this financial year the backlog of partner visa applications will be about 120,000,” he said, adding: “Every year about 65 to 70,000 partner visa applications are received. Anyone want to guess how many partner visa places there are? 40,000. Now in my maths that doesn’t work.”
Asked directly what population size Australia should aim for, Rizvi resisted nominating a single number without a framework. “I think two things. One, if you had a plan, then you could have a number that made sense, assuming the plan made sense,” he said. “But whilst we don’t have a plan, it’s usually the situation that historically when net migration has got to about 250,000, the complaints become overwhelming.”
“If it’s less than 200, the problems in terms of skill shortages start to become significant,” he said.
He also disputed the plausibility of Treasury’s longer-run assumptions, arguing policy settings had shifted in ways that made older averages a weak guide. “Policy today is very different to policy precoid,” he said, listing a larger permanent program, New Zealand citizenship changes, tighter but still large student planning levels, reduced work-experience requirements for skilled temporary visas, and more flexible working holiday arrangements.
“The politics of this is changing,” he said. “Opposition politicians will argue, you promised net migration would fall to these levels. you broke your promise.”
Rizvi said the public case for immigration had been left largely unanswered. “I think the best way forward is sunlight and not darkness,” he said, criticising the approach of “say nothing apart from the rare cases” where leaders defend student or skilled intakes.
He also addressed questions about “Australian values”, describing the current system as “non-discriminatory” and noting visa applicants are required to sign a document stipulating values, followed by a citizenship test. He said those calling for tougher measures had not explained what an alternative would practically look like.
Rizvi closed by returning to the long arc of population change and the need for elected leaders to articulate choices. “The best way to think about our future population is to draw a parabola. It will go up and it will come down. The question is when and where will it peak?” he said.
“Lower net migration peaks earlier and then declines. Higher net migration, it peaks higher and later and then declines,” he said, adding that the central task remained political clarity. “I don’t mind what choice they make as long as they make a choice and explain it.”
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