New polling suggests the Victorian Coalition faces an uphill task to return to government, with Labor maintaining a 52–48 lead on a two-party preferred basis. The poll, published in the Herald Sun and conducted by RedBridge Group Australia, points to the scale of the challenge for Opposition Leader John Pesutto as he tries to claw back 16 seats.
Kos Samaras, Director at RedBridge, said the numbers show the Coalition is unlikely to make gains where it matters most. “On those numbers the Coalition is well short of the 16 seats it needs. Even if the statewide vote were to rise to 51–52%, much of that swing would be concentrated in rural and regional Victoria, areas where the Coalition is already strong and where the correction will most likely occur,” he explained.
The problem, he argued, lies squarely in Melbourne, where four out of five Victorians live. “To win government, the Coalition would need to crack into Melbourne seats that Labor currently holds on margins above 5%. That means not just a statewide 51–52%, but a Melbourne two-party preferred closer to 52–53%, a swing of up to 7 points in the city is required.”
Breaking down the figures, Labor leads 54–46 in the inner and middle suburbs, 52–48 in the outer suburbs and 58–42 in provincial cities such as Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong. Only in rural communities does the Coalition lead, at 52–48.
Samaras pointed to demographic forces shaping the contest. “Younger voters and renters [are] backing Labor and the Greens. Diverse, multi-lingual communities in the outer suburbs [are] anchoring Labor’s base. University-educated professionals in the inner suburbs [are] locked in for Labor/Greens,” he said.
For the Coalition, the arithmetic is sobering. Gains in rural seats will not shift the parliamentary map unless the party makes decisive breakthroughs in metropolitan Melbourne. “Even if the Coalition improves statewide, without a decisive breakthrough in metropolitan Melbourne the arithmetic to 16 seats remains out of reach,” Samaras said.
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