Australia’s population is more diverse today than at any time since the late 19th century, and political strategists say the Coalition is failing to grasp what that means for its electoral chances.
Kos Samaras, Director at RedBridge Group Australia, said the party needed to rein in MPs outside New South Wales and Victoria who misread the country’s demographic reality. “Why the Coalition needs to gag some of their MPs who do not come from NSW or Vic. They have no idea about the complexity of this country,” he wrote.
Samaras pointed to ABS figures released in April showing that 31.5 per cent of Australians were born overseas as of June 2024, the second highest share since records began in 1891. “Australia is more diverse today than at any point since the late 19th century. A third of the population was born overseas, and the electorates that decide elections are now defined by multicultural majorities,” he said.
That reality is reshaping the map. In the 50 most diverse electorates, stretching across Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide, first and second-generation migrants now make up the majority of the population. Almost all of those seats are held by Labor, many on comfortable margins. Coalition holds just two.
Samaras said this should be a wake-up call. “The size of the mountain facing the Coalition cannot be overstated. Australia has entered a demographic reality not seen in more than a century. In 1891, around one in three Australians were born overseas, most from the UK and Ireland. By the mid-20th century, that proportion had collapsed, and the story of Australian politics became one of managing an overwhelmingly Australian-born electorate. But the curve has bent back.”
For the Coalition, he argued, the problem is existential. “You cannot win government in modern Australia without winning diverse electorates. The task ahead isn’t about who comes here in the future, it is about speaking credibly to the diverse Australia that is already here.”
As census and survey data confirm, the path to government now runs through electorates where migrant families, second-generation Australians and multicultural communities are the majority. “Politics in 2025 and beyond is a contest for the hearts and minds of multicultural Australia. Pretending otherwise is a recipe for election losses,” Samaras warned.
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