The Division of Sydney, held by Labor’s Tanya Plibersek since 1998, is often considered one of the party’s safest inner-city seats. Yet ahead of the 2025 federal election, the electorate—encompassing the CBD, Surry Hills, Redfern, Ultimo, Chippendale and surrounding high-density suburbs—is attracting renewed national interest.
Plibersek retains a 33.3% margin over her nearest challenger, The Greens. That number on paper suggests comfort. But the demographic composition of the seat, and the growing ambitions of The Greens in city-based electorates, are turning long-held assumptions into live debates. For Labor, Sydney is more than a stronghold. It is also a test of whether its inner-city base is still as secure as the margins suggest.
Plibersek, a former deputy leader of the Labor Party and current frontbencher, brings long-standing name recognition and a strong media presence. Her profile alone has historically attracted cross-party respect, even from critics of Labor’s policies. That profile may now be one of the campaign’s focal points. With The Greens eyeing gains across urban electorates—including adjacent seats such as Grayndler—the attention on Sydney is both local and symbolic.
Luc Velez, The Greens candidate, is fronting a campaign that centres climate action, housing policy, and urban sustainability. While the electorate has not shifted dramatically in partisan terms, Greens support has grown incrementally with each cycle. In 2022, they recorded a swing of nearly 3% in their favour in Sydney. Their broader campaign strategy this year leans heavily on high-density renters, young professionals, and students—many of whom list climate change, rent prices and public transport as daily concerns rather than abstract policy topics.
The Division of Sydney is defined by its density. According to the 2021 census, more than 60% of residents rent, a far higher rate than the national average. Nearly half are aged between 20 and 39. The area is also a cultural and educational hub, home to major universities, creative industries, and social services. The combination creates an electorate where generational and structural shifts in housing and infrastructure are felt quickly and vocally.
That shift is reflected in candidate offerings as well. Rachel Evans, standing for the Socialist Alliance, is campaigning on housing as a human right, seeking rent caps and direct investment in public housing. Evans has run in the seat multiple times and maintains strong links with grassroots tenant and activist networks. Her presence may not swing the seat in electoral terms, but her campaign is designed to influence debate and pressure major parties.
Alex Xu represents the Liberal Party, which has historically struggled to gain traction in the seat. While the Liberal primary vote remains relatively low in Sydney, their campaign this cycle has placed an emphasis on planning controls, fiscal responsibility, and infrastructure services. Xu’s messaging targets small business owners and apartment owners concerned about local amenity and council decision-making. Though unlikely to pose a threat to Labor or The Greens in this seat, the Liberals are seeking to avoid further declines in urban centres.
Vedran Torbarac is standing for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, adding a further layer to the field. One Nation’s support has traditionally been limited in inner-urban electorates, and Sydney is unlikely to buck that trend. Nonetheless, the party’s focus on migration policy and public order issues is visible in their campaign materials.
Still, the most closely watched contest remains between Plibersek and Velez. Plibersek’s campaign highlights her record on social housing investment, support for renters’ rights, and advocacy for local infrastructure—including funding for schools and public transport upgrades. She also points to her work on domestic violence prevention and education reform as part of her broader national platform.
The Greens’ Velez, meanwhile, is pressing for stronger emissions reduction targets, a rent freeze, and better urban planning to protect green spaces. Their campaign is also calling for limits on short-term rentals, particularly in suburbs like Surry Hills and Chippendale, where Airbnbs and short stays have been blamed for shrinking long-term rental stock.
The urban planning issue has emerged as one of the more technical but charged parts of the campaign. Many residents express frustration about approvals for large-scale developments that they say outpace infrastructure capacity. Traffic congestion, school overcrowding and strain on health services have become rallying points for community groups, some of which have taken non-partisan positions but are feeding into broader electoral discussions.
Sydney’s election contest mirrors a national conversation taking place across inner-city Australia. The Greens are hoping to build on their successes in seats such as Melbourne and Brisbane, where demographic changes and policy priorities have redrawn the traditional electoral map. They are particularly targeting Labor-held seats with younger populations and high rental stress—conditions that Sydney shares.
For Labor, defending these seats is critical not just for holding power but for demonstrating that the party can still represent the evolving concerns of city-based voters. The decision to front high-profile MPs like Plibersek and Anthony Albanese in such electorates signals a desire to hold that ground.
But voter fluidity in high-density areas is one of the wildcards of this election. Short-term leases, student turnover, and housing costs mean that electoral rolls and community networks change frequently. That volatility can make predicting turnout—and swings—more complex. Both Labor and The Greens are intensifying their on-the-ground campaigning as pre-polling opens, targeting apartment complexes and public transit hubs with leaflet drops, phone banking, and pop-up information booths.
Early polling shows Labor ahead, but internal numbers from several parties suggest the margin could tighten, particularly if Greens preferences from minor candidates consolidate. The role of Evans from the Socialist Alliance may be notable here, given shared policy positions with The Greens on housing and the environment. However, preference flows remain unpredictable.
Nationally, the contest in Sydney is unlikely to determine who forms government, but it will be watched for what it indicates about Labor’s long-term urban strategy and The Greens’ ceiling in metropolitan seats. The outcome could influence how both parties frame policies on housing and infrastructure in future parliaments.
Election signs are now prominent across Darlinghurst and Redfern, and candidate forums have begun filling out halls and libraries from Haymarket to Glebe. While the final vote may not shift the parliamentary balance, it could help shape the policy tone for urban Australia in the next term.
The new Ultimo community centre hosted a packed candidates’ forum last week, with questions ranging from bicycle lanes to building heights. The crowd reflected the electorate’s changing face—younger, transient, and sharply focused on liveability. With housing stress, infrastructure strain, and environmental concerns dominating the discussion, candidates are under pressure to respond with policies that meet the urgency of everyday urban life.
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