Victoria is grappling with a double wave of COVID-19, with a new and swiftly spreading subvariant, JN.1, triggering a second surge of the disease shortly after the state emerged from a previous wave, as reported by The Age. Quoting Chief Health Officer Dr Clare Looker, the report describes the unfortunate phenomenon of a wave-on-wave pattern instead of a lull or return to baseline between waves.
“The speed with which this new variant has taken off is a cause for concern. Over a few weeks, we’ve witnessed it quickly becoming the dominant variant in the community,” Looker explained.
Last week, Victoria saw an average of 377 COVID hospitalisations, surpassing the earlier peak of 326 cases in early December. This increase coincided with antiviral prescriptions reaching levels not seen since January 2023.
Virologist Associate Professor Stuart Turville from the Kirby Institute, who predicted a ‘double hump’ COVID wave over the summer, stated that 2024 would be characterised by the JN.1 and its sublineages, sweeping aside the XBB subvariants of 2023. Turville clarified that, unlike Omicron or Delta, JN.1 does not appear to cause more severe disease.
The Age reports cite experts who anticipate the latest surge to peak in the coming weeks. Associate Professor James Trauer from Monash University’s epidemiological modelling unit believes that while deaths may still rise, a dramatic increase in hospitalisations is not expected from current levels.
Dr Looker emphasised the effectiveness of the new monovalent vaccine in keeping individuals with the JN.1 subvariant out of hospitals. A recent alert recommended booster vaccines for those aged over 75 and other vulnerable individuals who haven’t received a vaccine in the past six months.
Despite the rising hospitalisation rates, Professor Jason Trubiano, director of infectious diseases and immunology at Austin Health, suggested that a significant portion of COVID patients may be seeking treatment for unrelated ailments or procedures. He estimated around 80% of COVID patients at his hospital were not directly admitted due to the virus.
Dr Antony Tobin, chief medical officer at St Vincent’s Hospital Melbourne, noted a similar trend, stating that COVID’s impact extends beyond acutely unwell patients, causing disruptions due to intense infection control measures and reduced bed capacity, according to The Age report.
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