The geography of anger

or most of the past decade, Australia’s political centre has assumed the real contest was between Labor and the Coalition, with minor parties flickering at the edges. The latest AFR/RedBridge Accent polling suggests something more disruptive. One Nation sits on 26 per cent of the primary vote, up nine points since the last federal election and ahead of the Coalition’s combined 19 per cent. Among working-class voters, it reaches 34 per cent.

 

On paper, Labor still holds 34 per cent of the primary vote and a 56–44 two-party preferred lead. On the ground, the story is more complicated.

Kos Samaras, Director at RedBridge Group Australia, has warned against flattening the geography of politics into a single national number. “When One Nation polls at 25% or above nationally, that number isn’t distributed evenly. It never is. National averages flatten the geography out of politics and geography is where this story lives.”

The class breakdown explains what he means. Among upper-class voters, Labor leads on 34 per cent, with One Nation at 24 and the LNP at 16. In the middle class, Labor holds 32 per cent, while One Nation and the LNP are tied at 23 each. Among working-class voters, however, One Nation climbs to 34 per cent, ahead of Labor at 27 and the LNP at 14.

This is the centre of the story.

“If the average is mid-twenties, that means One Nation is pushing into the mid-thirties and beyond in a swathe of regional seats. Not everywhere. Not in the cities. But in the places where it matters for them, provincial and outer regional Australia.”

What has shifted in those provincial and outer regional communities is not abstract ideology. It is pressure.

“When One Nation polls at 25% or above nationally, that number isn’t distributed evenly. It never is. National averages flatten the geography out of politics and geography is where this story lives.”

Samaras cautions against reducing One Nation’s rise to a simple ideological swing. “There’s a temptation to treat One Nation’s growth as a simple story of right-wing radicalisation. It isn’t. A large share of the voters powering this aren’t ideological converts. They’re serial minor party voters, people who have bounced between One Nation, Palmer, Indis, and whoever else was available. They don’t vote ‘for’ minor parties so much as they vote ‘against’ major ones. The party name on the ballot matters less than the message it sends…..not you.”

That phrase lingers. Not you. It describes a sentiment that cuts across class lines.

Among working-class voters, One Nation’s 34 per cent support compared with 14 per cent for the LNP suggests that the traditional conservative base is no longer anchored to the Coalition. In middle-class Australia, One Nation matches the LNP at 23 per cent. In upper-class Australia, it trails Labor but remains firmly competitive.

A party that once hovered at the fringe now competes across broad social strata. “One Nation has suddenly become the most durable vehicle for that sentiment. Where other minor parties have surged and faded, Hanson’s outfit has consolidated the protest vote into something more permanent (possibly).”

Possibly is doing work there. Australia has seen protest surges before, from Palmer to assorted independents. Durability is harder to prove than momentum.

There is another element to Samaras’s argument. “On the margins, One Nation is also picking up a fraction of the Labor vote, but not where Labor is competitive. This is happening in regional seats Labor doesn’t hold and in many cases hasn’t held for a long time. These are communities where people might carry a cultural memory of Labor, but where the modern Labor Party feels distant, urban, professional, removed.”

Labor’s national position remains stable. But in Coalition-held regional seats, even a small shift from Labor to One Nation can change the contest. “In those seats, a handful of points moving from Labor to One Nation doesn’t hurt Labor. Labor wasn’t winning anyway. But it does change the shape of the contest. It super charges One Nation’s vote, and makes the seat a genuine contest versus the Coalition. Labor losing votes to One Nation in National and Liberal Party regional seats is bad news for the Coalition. I would not rule out these Labor voters tactically voting to oust the incumbent Coalition MP either.”

This is how a system moves without a national landslide.

The demographic detail sharpens the picture. One Nation polls at 35 per cent among Gen X voters and 33 per cent among those with trade or TAFE qualifications. These are voters who came of age during the reform years of the 1990s, who experienced industrial change and asset inflation, and who now see their children facing a more precarious housing market.

At the same time, Pauline Hanson’s personal favourability rating of 38 per cent edges out Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s 34 per cent. Leadership ratings fluctuate, yet they signal recognition and connection. Across Western democracies, established conservative parties have faced internal fractures. Australia appears to be experiencing its own version of that strain.

Migration alone does not explain the shift. Housing supply constraints predate the recent surge in arrivals. Wage growth has lagged for years. Regional communities have often felt overlooked in national debates

Is mass migration the sole reason for One Nation’s rise?
Migration alone does not explain the shift. Housing supply constraints predate the recent surge in arrivals. Wage growth has lagged for years. Regional communities have often felt overlooked in national debates.

Yet the scale of the post-pandemic rebound has sharpened perceptions. Moving from 96,700 net arrivals in 2022 to 480,500 in the latest year is not incremental change. It is a recalibration of pace. It coincides with record rents and elevated house prices.

The class breakdown suggests that working-class voters are interpreting that pace differently from upper-class voters. In upper-class Australia, Labor leads at 34 per cent and One Nation sits at 24. In working-class Australia, One Nation leads at 34 while Labor falls to 27.

Migration can lift economic growth. It can ease labour shortages. It can expand tax bases. It can also intensify demand for housing and services. These dynamics coexist.

What shapes elections is not the national growth figure. It is whether communities believe that growth is balanced, planned and shared.

Samaras offers a reminder of how far the political ground has shifted. “A party that didn’t exist thirty years ago is now competitive with the primary vote of the major parties in parts of the country where the Nationals and to a lesser extent the Liberal Party, once won seats without breaking a sweat.”

The Nationals built their identity around regional representation within a major-party structure. If that representation now appears inadequate to a slice of voters, the protest consolidates elsewhere. Preference flows, seat-by-seat contests and concentrated support will matter more than national headlines

The Nationals built their identity around regional representation within a major-party structure. If that representation now appears inadequate to a slice of voters, the protest consolidates elsewhere. Preference flows, seat-by-seat contests and concentrated support will matter more than national headlines.

Australia’s electoral system rewards intensity in specific geographies. If One Nation’s mid-twenties nationally translates into mid-thirties in key regional seats, the effect will be measured not in commentary but in seats won and lost.

Politics rarely turns on a single trigger. It builds through accumulation. Years of housing pressure. Years of wage stagnation. A rapid surge in arrivals after border closures. A sense that national conversations are conducted in a register far removed from daily experience.

People live with these numbers long before they vote on them.

One Nation’s rise cannot be reduced to migration, and migration cannot be isolated from broader economic strain. The data points to a country growing faster than at any time in recent decades. The polling points to a right flank reorganising around a party that presents itself as a vehicle for protest.

The geography of that shift matters. So does its durability.

If the mid-twenties nationally become mid-thirties in provincial seats, as Samaras suggests, the next federal election will not rest on the assumption that Australia’s political map is stable. It will be contested in outer suburbs and regional towns where growth feels uneven and where the ballot paper carries a simple message to those in power: not you.