Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has recorded a small lift in approval at a time when the opposition is struggling to settle on a preferred leader, with new Essential polling showing a sharp rise in voters who are unsure who should take charge of the Liberal Party.
According to the new Essential Poll, the Prime Minister’s approval has risen to 47 per cent, up two points, while disapproval has fallen to 43 per cent. It is a modest shift, but one that comes after a year marked by inflation pressures, immigration debates and a tightening labour market. The government will take comfort in the direction of the numbers, given the volatility of recent months and the growing noise around anti-immigration activism.
The mood on the opposition side is far less settled. Across the Liberal leadership field, no candidate has consolidated public support. Among all voters, Sussan Ley sits on 14 per cent while Andrew Hastie is on 8 per cent and Jacinta Nampijinpa Price on 11 per cent. Angus Taylor registers 5 per cent. The striking figure is the 45 per cent who say they are unsure.
Among Coalition voters, Ley leads with 21 per cent, followed by Hastie at 17 per cent and Price at 12 per cent. Yet even in the party’s own base, more than a quarter of voters remain undecided. Essential’s update noted the shift directly, reporting that “’Unsure’ has risen in the latest Essential poll as preferred Liberal leader amongst all Australians, while Sussan Ley has the support of 21% of Coalition voters.”
This limbo is unfolding just as broader voter sentiment hardens around immigration. According to Essential, 52 per cent of Australians say the immigration cap is too high, 39 per cent say it is about right and only 9 per cent believe it is too low. The numbers have moved only slightly since September, suggesting the disagreements playing out online and in protest movements may not reflect a large shift in public opinion but rather the intensity of a smaller group.
A fresh round of marches set for this weekend will again amplify anger around housing, congestion and cost-of-living pressures. Organisers claim the events speak for a frustrated mainstream, although recent RedBridge and Essential trends show more complexity. One Nation continues to poll strongly among some groups, but Labor is holding or increasing its primary vote in many segments, particularly among women and younger Australians.
The Liberals face the added difficulty of selling themselves as a coherent alternative while still divided over both climate and immigration strategy. A leadership vacuum only sharpens this problem. With Labor’s vote stabilising and the Prime Minister recording his first positive movement in weeks, the Coalition’s challenge is no longer just policy but confidence.
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