Riverina, a vast electorate covering over 52,000 square kilometres in southwestern New South Wales, is preparing for a federal election that could unsettle its long-standing political tradition. Historically a safe seat for the National Party, the electorate now faces a broader field of candidates vying for a position that, while still held by Michael McCormack, is no longer as secure as it once was. The results of this election could offer a glimpse into the shifting political mood in regional Australia.
The seat, encompassing towns like Wagga Wagga, Cowra, Young, Yass, Temora and Cootamundra, has undergone recent redistributions that have reduced McCormack’s margin of victory from 14.8% to 9.7%. This reduction reflects a broader trend across regional electorates, where once-safe margins are being eroded by local dissatisfaction and a hunger for change.
At the heart of the contest is Michael McCormack, the incumbent Member of Parliament since 2010. Serving as the Shadow Minister for International Development and the Pacific, McCormack remains a high-profile figure nationally. His leadership credentials and political experience have kept him in the public eye, but in Riverina, there are signs that familiarity might be wearing thin. McCormack remains the front-runner, but his grip on the seat is looser than it has been in years past.
Challenging him is a diverse set of candidates that speak to Riverina’s evolving political identity. Among the independents, Barbara Baikie stands out. A former Wagga Wagga City Councillor with deep community ties, Baikie has campaigned on strengthening local infrastructure, supporting small businesses, and ensuring that Riverina’s voice is heard in Canberra. Her local reputation has turned her into a serious contender among voters looking for grassroots representation.
James Gooden, another independent candidate and small business owner, is appealing to those frustrated by rising costs of living and economic pressures in the region. His straightforward style and focus on economic resilience have resonated with voters who feel increasingly disconnected from the major parties.
The field also includes candidates from minor parties. Mark Craig, representing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, brings a familiar populist message focused on regional development and government accountability. Meanwhile, Pheonix Valxori from the Greens presents a very different vision, centred on environmental sustainability and social equity — a platform that, while more popular in urban areas, is gaining a foothold even in traditional farming regions.
Among the Labor candidates is Mark Jeffreson, who is running on promises of stronger healthcare funding, education access, and regional economic development. Although Labor has historically struggled in Riverina, the national political climate and McCormack’s reduced margin could make the seat more competitive than it appears.
The ballot paper will also feature independent candidates Jake Davis and Grant Hardwick, as well as Desiree Gregory from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, Mark Burge from Family First, and Richard Foley from the Citizens Party. The presence of such a broad mix of independents and minor party candidates highlights a deepening desire among voters for alternatives to the traditional party duopoly.
Riverina’s demographic makeup offers clues to the election’s key issues. With a largely Australian-born population, a median age of around 42, and a strong agricultural backbone, the electorate is deeply connected to farming and small business. Fluctuating commodity prices, water security concerns and the soaring cost of living have hit these industries hard, leading to a groundswell of frustration aimed at both major parties.
Infrastructure remains a dominant local issue. Many towns across Riverina feel left behind when it comes to road maintenance, public transport options and digital connectivity. Candidates across the spectrum, from McCormack to the independents, have promised to address these concerns, but voters remain sceptical. The mood in Riverina suggests that whoever makes the most credible case for delivering tangible improvements will have an advantage.
Voting patterns in the electorate have been slowly shifting. While turnout in Riverina is generally high, the informal vote rate is above average, reflecting a certain disillusionment with the available options. The National Party’s declining margin over the past two elections indicates a growing willingness among voters to consider change, even if that change comes in small increments rather than a dramatic upset.
Campaigning methods have also evolved. Candidates are now more active on social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram, bypassing traditional media gatekeepers and speaking directly to voters. Independents and minor party candidates, in particular, have embraced this direct approach, finding new ways to energise and mobilise their communities.
The Riverina election is shaping up to be more competitive than in previous years. With an established figure like Michael McCormack facing a diverse field of independents and minor party challengers, the seat may no longer be the unshakeable stronghold it once was. Economic pressures, dissatisfaction with infrastructure, and broader shifts in regional political identity all point to an electorate quietly weighing its options.
While the National Party remains the favourite, this year’s election will test whether Riverina is prepared to back tradition or whether a new political current is beginning to flow through its wheat fields and town halls. Whatever the outcome, Riverina is sending a clear message: regional Australia is no longer content to be taken for granted.
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🗳️#Riverina’s election heats up as @M_McCormackMP faces strong independent & minor party challengers.🔥Reduced margins, local issues & voter frustration are reshaping this once-safe Nationals seat.🌾Regional Australia demanding real change.📣#TheIndianSunhttps://t.co/4Bdv20jDuN
— The Indian Sun (@The_Indian_Sun) April 29, 2025
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