Melbourne voters overwhelmingly believe high tobacco taxes are helping drive the illicit cigarette market, according to new polling commissioned by the Australian Association of Convenience Stores, as pressure builds on governments over the link between illegal tobacco and organised crime.
The RedBridge Group survey of 2,014 Melbourne voters found 76 per cent believed excessive federal excise encouraged consumers to seek illegal alternatives, while 49 per cent wanted tobacco taxes reduced. Just 12 per cent supported further increases.
The poll, conducted between July 14 and 23 across Melbourne’s five metropolitan Legislative Council regions, also found 66 per cent believed the illegal tobacco trade had made the city less safe.
Australian Association of Convenience Stores chief executive Theo Foukkare said the findings should prompt the Federal Government to reconsider its approach to tobacco taxation.
“This is a wake-up call for the Federal Government. Melbourne voters now see high tobacco taxes as a driver of the black market, not a solution to it,” Mr Foukkare said.
The findings come amid an intensifying national debate over whether Australia’s tobacco excise, designed to discourage smoking by making cigarettes more expensive, is contributing to demand for cheaper illegal products.
The Federal Government has resisted calls for an excise cut, arguing there is no evidence that reducing the tax to a particular level would make illicit cigarettes uncompetitive. Health Minister Mark Butler said last month that the government was not considering a short-term reduction, while acknowledging the illegal trade had become a major law enforcement and public health problem.
The government has instead increased enforcement against the illicit market. Since early 2024, more than $365 million has been committed to combating illegal tobacco, including funding for states and territories, while legislation before federal Parliament increases penalties and investigative powers for tobacco-related offences.
Victoria has also stepped up enforcement. Tobacco Licensing Victoria began enforcing the state’s new licensing system in February and the government has since introduced legislation allowing authorities to close businesses selling illicit tobacco for up to 90 days, with longer closure orders available through the Magistrates’ Court.
The RedBridge polling suggests public concern extends beyond the price of cigarettes. Fifty-four per cent of respondents said the unregulated trade made it easier for children to buy cigarettes, while 49 per cent believed it had damaged their local community.
Firebombings and arson attacks recorded the highest level of concern among the issues tested in the survey, with a net concern score of 71. Organised crime groups profiting from illegal tobacco recorded a score of 61.
Crime and safety was also ranked as voters’ second-highest priority behind the cost of living, according to the poll.
Responsibility for the growth of the black market was divided between levels of government. Twenty-six per cent of respondents nominated the Victorian Government as most responsible and 24 per cent blamed the Federal Government. The survey also found voters regarded the Liberals as better equipped than Labor to deal with crime, neighbourhood safety and black-market tobacco networks.
AACS represents convenience stores, including retailers that sell legal tobacco products, and has been campaigning for changes to tobacco excise. Its polling therefore enters a debate in which the organisation has a direct commercial interest.
Mr Foukkare argued the gap between legal and illicit cigarette prices was pushing smokers towards illegal suppliers.
“Melburnians understand what Canberra won’t admit: price people out of the legal market, and they will turn to criminals instead,” Mr Foukkare said.
“Rather than reducing smoking rates, it’s handing billions to organised crime while legitimate retailers face firebombings and violence.
“AACS has been sounding the alarm for years. Now Melbourne voters are confirming what we’ve warned. This policy is failing consumers, failing businesses, and failing communities.”
The association is urging Victorian Premier Ben Carroll to join calls from other state leaders for the Commonwealth to reconsider the excise. Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff has publicly called for a reduction, while Tasmania has also introduced tougher penalties and powers to close businesses selling illicit tobacco and vaping products.
“Premier Minns and Rockliff have shown leadership by acknowledging that current excise is driving illegal tobacco sales,” Mr Foukkare said.
“Premier Carroll should now stand up for Victorian communities facing the same crisis. Melbourne voters have made their views clear. The Victorian Government must add its voice and demand federal action.”
AACS said it supported stronger enforcement but argued enforcement measures would have limited effect while the price difference between legal and illicit tobacco remained large.
“You cannot enforce your way out of a market where illegal product is dramatically cheaper and available on every corner. Enforcement must go hand-in-hand with excise reform,” Mr Foukkare said.
The Federal Government maintains tobacco taxation remains an important public health measure intended to encourage smokers to quit. It has also acknowledged that illicit tobacco is providing substantial revenue to organised crime and threatening efforts to reduce smoking rates.
The RedBridge survey used quotas for age, gender, region, education and voting at the 2025 federal election. After weighting, it had an effective sample size of 1,711 and a stated margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points for a result of 50 per cent.
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