Kos Samaras, Director at RedBridge Group Australia and a polling strategist, says new modelling points to a structural shift in Australian politics, with One Nation emerging as the dominant force among working-class voters while the Coalition loses its traditional base.
“Our latest RedBridge | Accent Research MRP, modelling all 150 seats, suggests that project is ending,” Mr Samaras said, referring to the long-standing political alignment built around the Liberal Party.
The model projects Labor on 76 seats with 31 per cent of the primary vote, while One Nation rises to 53 seats on 28 per cent, positioning itself as the Official Opposition. The Coalition falls to 12 seats with 21 per cent of the vote.
“One Nation is now the party of the Anglo working class,” Mr Samaras said. “Regional Queensland, regional NSW, regional Victoria, regional WA. Plus the outer-suburban mortgage belts of every capital.”
He said this voter base reflects a distinct demographic profile, concentrated among non-university educated voters in trades and blue-collar roles, often experiencing mortgage stress and relying on government support.
“This is the Coalition’s old base, voting somewhere else,” he said.
Labor has become a “bimodal coalition”, made up of younger renters and mortgage holders across inner-city and multicultural outer suburbs. “Renters and mortgage-holders. Younger. Non-religious in the inner city, Muslim/Hindu/Buddhist/Orthodox/Catholic in the outer suburbs… Two populations, one vote”
Mr Samaras said Labor’s support now draws from two contrasting groups.
“Labor has become a bimodal coalition,” he said, pointing to inner metropolitan, university-educated voters alongside multicultural outer suburban communities in seats such as Watson, Blaxland, Calwell and Bruce.
“Renters and mortgage-holders. Younger. Non-religious in the inner city, Muslim/Hindu/Buddhist/Orthodox/Catholic in the outer suburbs. Two populations, one vote.”
He said the Coalition’s remaining support is concentrated in a smaller number of high-income electorates.
“The Liberal Party is left with a small bucket of seats,” Mr Samaras said, listing areas including Bradfield, Mitchell and Goldstein.
He said the party is increasingly reliant on preference flows rather than primary support.
“The Liberals are surviving on preferences, not primaries,” he said.
Coalition’s remaining support is concentrated in a smaller number of high-income electorates
Mr Samaras said the shift reflects long-term political and economic changes.
“This is what a decade of choices looks like,” he said. “A decade of not representing people economically. A decade of finding new ways to offend the multicultural communities that used to be persuadable.”
He said the transformation signals a break from the original foundation of the Liberal Party under Robert Menzies.
“The Menzies project rested on a ‘forgotten people’ who could see themselves represented by the Liberal Party,” Mr Samaras said. “They no longer can. They’re voting One Nation.”
The modelling also suggests the Coalition would fail to win seats in several states, with losses concentrated in regional and outer suburban areas.
Mr Samaras said the broader change is unfolding within conservative politics rather than between the major parties.
“Labor wins this scenario,” he said. “But the structural story is on the right of politics. The Coalition is no longer the Opposition. One Nation is.”
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