Treasurer Jim Chalmers has defended the federal Budget as responsible and focused on housing reform, as new polling and analysis point to a shift in voter sentiment driven by cost of living pressures and changes within conservative support.
“There are two very big differences in the Budget and the Budget reply handed down last week,” Mr Chalmers said. “The first one is our Budget was one of the most responsible in memory, and the Budget reply was one of the least responsible.”
He criticised Opposition leader Angus Taylor’s response, saying, “Angus Taylor’s Budget reply is a recipe for much bigger deficits, much more debt and much more inflation.”
Mr Chalmers said the government had taken a different approach on tax and housing, describing the Budget as delivering relief while addressing structural issues.
“So the difference last week was between a Labor Government cutting tax three different ways, $2800 a year for the average worker, versus Angus Taylor with his unfunded, uncosted, irresponsible Budget reply,” he said.
Housing remains central to the government’s policy focus. Mr Chalmers said, “the defining intergenerational issue in our society and in our country is housing, and we’re doing something about it.”
He said changes to tax settings were aimed at improving access to home ownership and addressing long-standing imbalances in the system.
“What we’re doing in the Budget is making it easier for 75,000 renting households to become homeowning households”
“What we’re doing in the Budget is making it easier for 75,000 renting households to become homeowning households,” Mr Chalmers said.
Dave Sharma, a Liberal senator for New South Wales, has criticised the government’s capital gains tax changes, arguing Australia’s settings would sit above many comparable economies. He pointed to international benchmarks, noting lower or zero rates in countries such as New Zealand and Singapore, and lower caps in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Israel.
The proposed changes would replace the existing 50 per cent discount with an approach based on inflation indexation, alongside a 30 per cent minimum tax on real gains from July 2027. The policy is designed to tax inflation-adjusted gains and limit the ability of high earners to time asset sales into lower tax brackets. It would apply across shares, property and other investments, while maintaining exemptions for pensioners and retaining incentives linked to new housing supply.
Senator Dave Sharma said Australia risks becoming less competitive as a destination for capital. “Labor’s new minimum capital gains tax is HIGHER than the max in most nations,” he said, adding, “Higher taxes = less investment.”
Mr Sharma warned the changes could affect investment behaviour. “Labor’s new minimum capital gains tax is HIGHER than the max in most nations,” he said, adding, “Higher taxes = less investment.”
He acknowledged the political risks of the changes, noting, “we did take a difficult political decision to come to a different view in these important areas, contentious areas.”
The Treasurer said the government expected criticism from those with vested interests in existing arrangements.
“There are the usual scare campaigns full of lies from people with a partisan or a commercial interest in the status quo,” he said.
While debate over tax and housing settings has intensified, polling suggests limited movement in overall vote intention. Political analyst Kos Samaras said the stability in headline numbers masks a shift within conservative voters.
“A lot of noise. For what?” Mr Samaras said. “Vote intentions have hardly moved. But look at where the movement is. Over the last 6 months, all on the Right and it’s profound.”
He said public commentary around the Budget has focused on issues that do not reflect the financial pressures facing most households.
“The budget hysteria tells you everything about who the commentariat is actually talking to,” he said. “Shares. Investment portfolios. Family trusts. Negative gearing portfolios and super balances into the million.”
Mr Samaras said the majority of Australians are dealing with rising costs rather than investment settings.
“Most Australians don’t have any of that. They have a mortgage they’re barely servicing. Power bills, food shopping that costs more than it did last month. Rent that’s eating half their pay,” he said. “Aspiration for these people is a word that has a lot of relevance, aspiration to break even at the end of the month.”
He said this divide helps explain why Labor’s vote has remained steady.
“Hence, the people screaming about the budget aren’t the people the budget was written for. And Labor’s vote didn’t move. It held,” Mr Samaras said.
Mr Samaras said the majority of Australians are dealing with rising costs rather than investment settings
The latest polling shows Labor on 31 per cent, the Coalition on 20 per cent, One Nation on 27 per cent, Greens on 12 per cent and other parties on 10 per cent.
Mr Samaras said the more notable development is the continued shift among conservative voters.
“Meanwhile, the realignment on the Right holds firm,” he said. “One Nation heading towards a future parliament where they are the opposition – mainly at the complete destruction of the Coalition.”
He said further polling may reinforce the trend. “I would expect RedBridge Accent to report similar numbers shortly.”
Economic data has added to the broader discussion. OECD figures show real household income per capita growth in Australia slowed to 0.8 per cent in 2025, reflecting ongoing pressures across households.
Mr Chalmers said the government’s focus remains on addressing these challenges through structural reform rather than short-term political gain.
“We’re not doing this to help our primary vote, we’re doing this to help more people into housing,” he said.
He said the government was willing to take politically difficult decisions to address housing access and economic pressure.
“The thing that matters more to us than the politics is fixing a broken system which has locked too many Australians and too many young Australians in particular, out of the housing market,” Mr Chalmers said.
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