Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has climbed to 32 per cent in a new Roy Morgan Research poll, placing the party ahead of Labor and the Coalition and marking the first time since World War II that a party outside the traditional Labor-Liberal contest has led national voting intentions.
The polling figures showed One Nation on 32 per cent, Labor on 28.5 per cent, the Liberal/National Coalition on 16.5 per cent, the Greens on 11.5 per cent and others on 11.5 per cent.
The result arrives as debate intensifies over immigration, housing affordability, taxation and the rising cost of living, with both major parties facing growing pressure ahead of the next federal election.
Housing and property taxation remain central to the broader political argument following Labor’s budget measures targeting negative gearing, capital gains and family trusts.
Investors and commentators have raised concerns about restrictions on purchasing existing housing stock through negative gearing, shortages of tradies and rising construction costs affecting the viability of new developments.
Queensland Nationals senator Matt Canavan said a future Coalition government would seek to reverse Labor’s proposed tax measures, arguing the changes would hurt investors, small businesses and industry.
“We will oppose and repeal all of Labor’s bad taxes,” Canavan said, pointing specifically to Labor’s moves on negative gearing, capital gains and trust taxation.
He said taxes linked to property investment, industry and non electric vehicles “will go” under a Liberal and Nationals government, adding that “Taxes will be lower under a Liberal and Nationals Government.”
Political commentator Matthew Camenzuli argued Labor faced growing electoral pressure from both the left and right.
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“Labor has entered decline,” he posted on X.
“Their base demographic will move to the Greens and Teals. Their right flank will vote one nation.”
“All they will have left is the hard core unionists.”
Former Labor strategist Kos Samaras defended the government’s direction, arguing the budget was aimed squarely at younger Australians facing long-term housing and tax pressures.
“Tonight Labor chose a side…well, a generation to be honest,” Samaras wrote.
“Three reforms serious economists called politically impossible for twenty years, negative gearing, capital gains, family trusts, landed in one night.”
He said younger voters wanted structural change rather than temporary relief measures.
“What they want is structural reform on the issues that have shaped their adult lives. Housing, first. Tax, second,” Samaras said.
“They are not waiting for a miracle. They are waiting for evidence that the work has actually begun and that someone is in their corner.”
“It’s so bad that it reminds of something I saw with my own eyes back in 2015… Venezuela. Yes really. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…”
Commentator Topher Field used the latest economic debate to issue a broader warning about Australia’s economic direction.
“The collapse is here and I can prove it,” Field said in a video posted to X.
“It feels hard because it is, and we have the numbers to prove that it’s SO much worse than you think.”
“It’s so bad that it reminds of something I saw with my own eyes back in 2015… Venezuela. Yes really. Don’t say I didn’t warn you…”
Meanwhile, Economist Stephen Koukoulas criticised Opposition Leader Angus Taylor over a proposal to index income tax brackets to inflation, warning the policy could complicate efforts to control inflation.
“This is not a good idea,” Koukoulas said.
“For example, if inflation was 2.5%, the level at which a worker moves from a tax rate of 30% to 37% is lifted from $135,001 to $138,376. They are automatic income tax cuts in line with inflation.”
Koukoulas argued the policy would become more problematic during periods of higher inflation.
“If inflation is 5%, as it is not, that tax scale would rise from $135,001 to $141,751. A huge rise and a huge tax cut at a time when inflation is ripping along,” he said.
He said the proposal would work against the Reserve Bank’s efforts to contain inflation and could lead to greater volatility in interest rates.
“The proposal would make it much harder for the RBA to meets its inflation target and / or will require much greater volatility in interest rates as the RBA fights to offset the pro-cyclical nature of the the indexation of tax scales,” he said.
“And it costs a fortune – a chunky $23 billion in 4 years.”
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