A migration plan pitched as a reset on “Australian values” is being questioned by political analyst Kos Samaras, who argues the policy risks misreading voter anger while further alienating migrant communities central to the Coalition’s electoral path.
Kos Samaras, Director at RedBridge Group, said new polling conducted with Accent Research suggests immigration is not the primary concern driving economic frustration among Australians. “When we asked voters who they blamed for rising prices and interest rates, only 6% pointed to immigrants,” he said. “Politicians led on 40%, followed by CEOs of big businesses at 20%.”
His analysis follows remarks by Opposition figure Angus Taylor, who outlined the Coalition’s “Australian Values Migration Plan” in Sydney. The proposal includes making the Australian Values Statement legally enforceable, expanding social media vetting and tightening visa conditions.
Mr Samaras said the Coalition risks targeting the wrong issue. “This is a policy designed to solve a problem voters are not primarily defining in the terms he has chosen,” he said.
The data, he argued, shows that even among voters most receptive to tougher migration settings, frustration is directed elsewhere. “Among One Nation voters, 59% blame politicians and 9% blame CEOs. Just 14% blame immigrants,” he said, describing the sentiment as “a profound institutional fury, not an immigration grievance dressed up in economic clothing.”
That distinction matters politically. Mr Samaras said the Coalition cannot outflank minor parties by adopting similar rhetoric. “One Nation owns the institutional fury space. The Coalition will always run second here,” he said.
Mr Samaras noted that India is on track to become Australia’s largest overseas-born population, overtaking England. As of mid-2024, England-born residents numbered about 963,560 compared to 916,330 India-born residents, with the gap expected to close imminently due to diverging growth trends
Beyond voter sentiment, his analysis in a recent article published on the group’s Substack points to a deeper structural challenge linked to Australia’s demographic shift. More than half of the population now has a migrant background, rising to nearly two-thirds in inner metropolitan electorates.
“These are the seats the Coalition must win back to form government,” he said. “They are filled with the Australia of now, not the Australia of 1996.”
The implications are particularly sharp for the Indian diaspora. Mr Samaras noted that India is on track to become Australia’s largest overseas-born population, overtaking England. As of mid-2024, England-born residents numbered about 963,560 compared to 916,330 India-born residents, with the gap expected to close imminently due to diverging growth trends.
He said messaging around “values” risks being interpreted in unintended ways. “When these communities hear the kind of language deployed, they think he is talking about them,” Mr Samaras said.
That perception, he argued, comes with political consequences. Indian-Australian and Chinese-Australian voters have played a decisive role in metropolitan seats that shifted away from the Coalition in recent elections. Many of these electorates are younger, more diverse and highly educated.
“These are not voters looking for a cultural restoration project,” he said, adding that inner metropolitan voters show lower levels of pessimism about the country’s direction compared with regional areas.
The generational divide adds another layer. Younger voters, including second-generation migrants, are concentrated in urban electorates where the Coalition has lost ground. Mr Samaras said this cohort is unlikely to respond to rhetoric framed around cultural alignment.
Indian-Australian and Chinese-Australian voters have played a decisive role in metropolitan seats that shifted away from the Coalition in recent elections. Many of these electorates are younger, more diverse and highly educated.
At the same time, he acknowledged that concerns about migration are not without basis. “Housing pressure, infrastructure strain, pressure on wages in specific sectors, these are genuine grievances,” he said.
However, he argued these concerns are being misdirected. “Cost of living is the dominant frame through which voters interpret almost everything. Politicians are the primary villain in that story, not immigrants,” he said.
For the Indian diaspora, this framing matters. Many families are directly affected by housing affordability, job competition and cost pressures, yet also remain sensitive to narratives that appear to question belonging or contribution.
Mr Samaras suggested a different approach would resonate more broadly. A focus on housing supply, infrastructure and labour conditions, he said, could attract support across communities, including migrants.
“What it cannot do is pursue that pitch through a values test that, in the ears of communities central to electoral arithmetic, sounds like something else entirely,” he said.
The voters the Coalition risks losing are not those drifting to fringe parties, but those in diverse urban seats who have already shifted to Labor and independents.
“Chasing votes you will not win, whilst losing votes you cannot afford,” Mr Samaras said, describing the current strategy as a miscalculation in a rapidly changing Australia.
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